Mortgage Rate Data Deluge 🏠📉🔒 (FEB 17)
Here is a deluge of mortgage rate data to start your week!
Included in this week’s deluge are the following sections:
Shop real-time mortgage rates anonymously and get instant qualification results at LendZen.com
MARKET RECAP ⏪
------------------
Last week was full of high stakes and “What the heck happened” moments, but in the end mortgage rates survived after no major surprises from NFP employment and CPI inflation.
This helped mortgage rate PRICES drift back within 8-bps of a multi-year low set on January 9.
See more in the Rate Price Index section below.
DALLAS DEFLATION 🎈
-----------------------
Deflation is back in at least one major US metro. Based on the recent January CPI inflation data, prices year-over-year declined in the Dallas area for the first time since the pandemic.
RATE PRICE INDEX 📉
----------------------
Mortgage rates do not rise or fall, instead the PRICE of rates change.
The LendZen Index calculates a daily change in the price of mortgage rates by tracking a spectrum of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
This provides borrowers with a more specific measurement of how the cost to obtain a mortgage is changing, regardless of the lender, rate, or credit score.
-----------
02/13/2026
-----------
24-Hour: -117 bps (-$12 per $100K)
5-Day: -33 bps (-$327)
10-Day: -41 bps (-$413)
30-Day: +8 bps ($76)
60-Day: -90 bps (-$898)
Mortgage rate prices have enjoyed a steady decline over the last two weeks.
After a shaky start to February, last week’s econ data and subsequent bond rally helped unwind the losses that started after January 9.
The first two months of 2026 have been volatile, but the worst is hopefully behind us as mortgage rate prices ended last week within 8-bps of a multi-year low.
THE TRACKER 🔭
----------------
The LendZen Index monitors the change in price across a broad set of rates and mortgage bond coupons, whereas the Mortgage Rate Price Tracker is more “rate and loan program” specific.
Both are an example of how mortgage rates do not rise or fall, but instead it is their price that changes.
Since the LendZen Index has a variety of time series, the MRPT focuses on the current month’s activity.
You can explore the full results from February Week 2 on this Substack post.
MBS PRICING 🏦
----------------
MBS coupons are sold at half-percent increments, while their price moves in 32nds (ticks).
ex. (0-04) = 4/32 = 12.5 bps
100-00 acts as the starting line, also referred to as PAR.
The higher the coupon price, the less expensive the rates will be that are sold into that security.
Therefore, an increase in the price of mortgage bonds is good for mortgage rates.
Learn more about the dynamics of MBS pricing and how it impacts your mortgage options in any of the bi-weekly “Rate Snapshot” Substack posts.
Another strong performance for mortgage bonds this week, with lower coupons seeing the most improvement, helping to reduce the price of lower mortgage rates.
This can become a self-fulfilling feedback loop as investors become fearful of early payoff risks at the higher coupons, thus attracting even more capital to the lower coupons.
This is a hopeful sign that lower mortgage rates will continue to decline in price.
MORTGAGE SPREADS 🧈
-------------------------
Published daily with the LendZen Index is the LendZen Mortgage-Treasury Spread.
The LMTS uses actual bond yields to create a historically consistent, and reliable, data set.
Learn more about the importance of accurate mortgage spreads on this Substack post.
-----------
02/13/2026
-----------
Feb 9: 0.84
Feb 13: 0.80
5d: -4 bps
30d Avg: 0.79
12m Avg: 1.16
YoY: -50 bps
HOUSING DATA 🏠
------------------
Here are the latest housing market stats, with trends from the last 90 days.
The U.S. median list price is $424,900, another notch up as 2026 prices continue to inch higher.
Inventories have been mostly flat since the start of the year.
Days on market haven’t changed much either with an average of 132.
The number of price reductions continues to retract with a 90-day average of 32%.
WEEK AHEAD 📅
----------------
With no FOMC meeting in February, markets will instead focus on this week’s Fed Minutes and PCE inflation.
Meanwhile homebuilder data, including new home sales, is scattered throughout the short week and could put mortgage rates on the skids.
Read more in yesterday’s Week Ahead.
RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------
The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.
higher risk scores = lean towards locking
------------------
Closing Window
------------------
[ 15 Days ] — 83 🟡🟠🔴
Although the heavy weight of last week is off our shoulders, Fed Minutes, GDP, and PCE should not be taken lightly. Considering mortgage rate prices are within a hair of the multi-year low taking the bird in hand (locking) seems like the smart decision.
[ 30 Days ] — 62 🟡🟠
The bigger trends (60+days) are constructive, but one bad print (i.e. hot PCE inflation read) can quickly undo the last two weeks of hard-fought ground.
[ 45 Days ] — 55 🟡🟢
With more time to absorb volatility it makes sense taking it one week at a time.
[ 60 Days ] — 38 🟡🟢💚
February looks like it could end quietly from here, and with the last two months of Big 3 data going in favor of bonds, the March FOMC seems like the wild card. Start looking for Fed jawboning and forward guidance as we round the corner into March.
If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.
I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.
Thanks for reading.
If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com
LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.
You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.
LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.