TABLE OF CONTENTS
RATE RECAP ⏪
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The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.
Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.
WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
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Mortgage-backed securities are once again flying dangerously close to the point of no return.
Since “Operation Epic Fury” began, mortgage rate pricing is now over 300-basis points higher.
That means the same rate quoted in February now costs $3,000 more per $100K of loan amount, or more than $15,000 on a $500K loan.
But it is the last two months of Fed hike fears and geopolitical turbulence that have really strained the bond market, leaving mortgage rates in a fragile position ahead of this week’s heavy haul of PMI surveys and employment data.
Can mortgage rates navigate the chaos and find a safe place to land, or is it time to assume the crash position?
One thing is for sure; this is the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
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Float ≤ 50 ≤ Lock
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Closing Window
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[ 15 Days ] — 84 🔴
MBS are sitting near a technical breaking point after a sharp five-day sell-off. Friday’s NFP, plus renewed geopolitical tension leave short closings with little margin for error. Locking is highly encouraged.
[ 30 Days ] — 73 🟠
The 30-day horizon remains in high alert, with a stacked week of manufacturing, services, and employment. Meanwhile, persistent Fed rate-hike chatter combined with unyielding geopolitical risk continues to snuff out bond rallies.
[ 45 Days ] — 62 🟠
Still enough runway to let this week’s data settle, but compared to three weeks ago floating is harder to justify. Especially, now that the market is pricing “hike risk” instead of just hawkish rhetoric. This window should watch, not relax.
[ 60 Days ] — 51🟡
The longest window remains the most defensible place to float, but increased rate hike odds add a new layer of risk versus last week. This week is meaningful, but sitting this far out also means another full round of Big 3 events.
The Lock-O-Meter provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds (mortgage rates).
The higher the score, the more a borrower should lean towards locking.
For short closing windows a lock is generally recommended because the rate you choose is more important.
I discuss how to make a savvy rate choice using the “long game” approach in this Substack post. 👇
Thanks for reading…
If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com
The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.
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