TABLE OF CONTENTS
RATE RECAP ⏪
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The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.
Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.
WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
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Bond markets started the week on the right foot with a calm Monday.
Mortgage rate pricing finished the day 14 bps better than Friday’s close.
Tuesday brings a double-team of housing data with both the FHFA and Case-Shiller home price indices.
But the real action starts Wednesday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, durable goods orders, and the second estimate of Q2 GDP.
The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins Thursday, but Friday is the main event when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his keynote.
The same day, the Labor Department publishes a preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision to Non-Farm Payrolls.
RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
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Float ≤ 50 ≤ Lock
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Closing Window
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[ 15 Days ] — 75 🟠
Monday’s calm start and modest improvement in mortgage pricing certainly help, but PCE, Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote, and the NFP revisions all land this week. Short closings remain exposed to all of the above and ever-present geopolitical surprises.
[ 30 Days ] — 66 🟠
The LendZen Index shows rate pricing is mostly unchanged across various time series (5D: +3 bps, 10D: -6 bps, and 30D: +8 bps), but in reality extreme volatility has made timing a lock an elusive endeavor. This week’s economic calendar is likely to add to that frustration, especially with Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair.
[ 45 Days ] — 55 🟡
More room exists to absorb this week’s data and Warsh’s Jackson Hole message. This makes floating reasonable, but stay vigilant especially as the next FOMC rate decision approaches.
[ 60 Days ] — 45🟡
Floating here is more defensible, but another round of “Big 3” events (NFP, CPI, FOMC) will pass before your closing date. Meanwhile, Hormuz flare ups might not rattle markets as much but could continue stifling the types of improvement that incentive floating.
The Lock-O-Meter provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds (mortgage rates).
The higher the score, the more a borrower should lean towards locking.
For short closing windows a lock is generally recommended because the rate you choose is more important.
I discuss how to make a savvy rate choice using the “long game” approach in this Substack post. 👇
Thanks for reading…
If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com
The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.
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