Jobs data and peace deal delays are a recipe for disaster 📊🍝💣

Week Ahead

Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert

May 31, 2026

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RATE RECAP ⏪
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The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

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WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
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The mortgage bond market managed to string together 7 consecutive days of gains despite the lack of a peace deal.

This puts mortgage rates back to the levels when the ceasefire was first announced in April.

Finalizing a peace agreement this week is crucial.

Further delays could by itself unravel recent gains but add in this week’s employment data, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Hopefully it’s only good news and bond friendly data, that mortgage rates can easily digest.

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RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
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The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

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Closing Window
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[ 15 Days ] — 80 🟠
Mortgage rates have improved consistently since the recent March high, but short-window borrowers do not have enough time to recover from another setback, whether it be any of the week’s employment reports (JOLTS, ADP, NFP), or a further delayed peace deal.

[ 30 Days ] — 66 🟠
This window remains lock-leaning. The latest LendZen Index shows a strong 5-day and 10-day recovery, but the 30-day view is still worse for borrowers, which says the market is healing, not healed.

[ 45 Days ] — 56 🟡
With more time available markets have room to absorb this week’s data flow, but floating still requires a watchful eye with the first FOMC under Warsh just shy of two-weeks out (June 17).

[ 60 Days ] — 44🟡
Two-month timelines still have float flexibility but remain just outside of green territory. The recovery can continue if a peace deal helps drag oil prices down further and econ data stays close to expectations. In this environment The Fed’s June rate decision will unlikely add any surprises, especially since post-FOMC press conferences have been canned by Warsh.

If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.

I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.

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Thanks for reading…

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