Home prices and inflation dominate short week as peace talk ping-pong continues 🏠💸🏓

Week Ahead

Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert

May 25, 2026

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RATE RECAP ⏪
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The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

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WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
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The bond market has been at the mercy of Iran peace talk ping-pong, with both sides trying to control the narrative.

Although nothing has been finalized, the outlook has at least remained hopeful.

Enough so, that mortgage rates managed to avoid a final nail in the coffin last week after rebounding slightly.

Beyond the battlefield, the econ data this week will be dominated by home prices and inflation focused reports.

Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which will be watched as closely as ever given the recent jump in rate hike odds.

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RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
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The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

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Closing Window
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[ 15 Days ] — 85 🔴
Mortgage pricing is still badly bruised from the last two months and markets are still highly sensitive to inflation after hotter recent readings. Short-window borrowers do not have enough time to absorb another bad inflation surprise or another oil-driven jump in yields, especially during a holiday-shortened week.

[ 30 Days ] — 69 🟠
The latest LendZen Index shows mortgage pricing 122 bps higher over 30 days, even after the slight Friday rebound. While there is some time to overcome the recent volatility, ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical risks make floating feel increasingly dangerous. The potential for an Iran peace deal could embolden the more aggressive floater or anyone with timeline flexibility (i.e. refi), but overall this window should be lock-leaning.

[ 45 Days ] — 60 🟡
At roughly six weeks out, there is enough time for the market to digest this week’s inflation data, but a dramatic reversal in bond pricing is a bit optimistic as oil transport in the Hormuz could take time to normalize.

[ 60 Days ] — 47🟡
Two-month timelines still have some float flexibility, but they no longer qualify as an easy green light. The longer horizon benefits from the chance that energy markets will calm further. However, “Big 3” data surprises and a shift in tone from the Fed under new Chairman Warsh remain as wild cards.

If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.

I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.

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Thanks for reading…

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