Powell says farewell as The Fed, home prices, and inflation take center stage 👋🏦📊
The Week Ahead
WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
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The events in Iran have been the main market mover since the conflict began.
However, this week is possibly the first time in 60 days that economic data will again take center stage.
The shift in attention also comes at a time when bond markets (and mortgage rates) are looking for directional guidance after the post March 27 recovery has lost momentum.
The FOMC rate decision is delivered on Wednesday, followed by what will be Jerome Powell’s final press conference as Fed Chairman.
It might also be the last presser for a while as Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh has suggested discontinuing the regularly scheduled media briefings.
This week’s Mortgage Rate Impact Calendar is also packed with inflation focused reports (PCE, Employment Cost Index) and numerous manufacturing surveys (Chicago PMI, S&P PMI, ISM).
Sprinkled in for good measure is durable goods, home price data (Case Schiller, FHFA), and multiple Treasury Note auctions.
RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
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The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.
higher risk scores = lean towards locking
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Closing Window
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[ 15 Days ] — 76 🟠
Mortgage rates have recovered nicely from the March spike thanks to the ceasefire, but this week brings the FOMC decision, PCE inflation, and multiple manufacturing surveys. Any surprises could lead to a swift and painful repricing without time to recover.
[ 30 Days ] — 63 🟠
Markets finally get the kind of economic calendar that can provide real directional guidance. If inflation-sensitive data or Powell’s tone disappoint, one month is not much time to recover from a meaningful repricing. This window can float but be ready to lock in the face of any reprice risks.
[ 45 Days ] — 53 🟡
With more time on the horizon, there is room to absorb this week’s data and the Fed meeting without immediate panic, though geopolitical risks and inflation readings keep caution in place.
[ 60 Days ] — 40🟢
The longer-term backdrop remains supportive of a float-first mentality as the ceasefire has eased energy-price pressure. Absent any major surprises the path for better mortgage rates looks more favorable over the next two months, especially with Powell out and a new Fed Chair taking over.
If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.
I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.
Thanks for reading.
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