Mortgage rates try to avoid a knockout as a triple threat approaches 📊😱🏦
The Week Ahead
WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
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Last week bond markets had to navigate the FOMC rate decision (pause), silver’s manic rise and fall, not-so-friendly inflation data, and a Fed Chair nomination surprise.
The end result was a sideways grind that left mortgage bonds and mortgage rate prices only a tad better.
This week markets will continue to process Trump’s decision to nominate Kevin Warsh for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman.
The nod to Warsh surprised markets given that he has favored a more hawkish approach to monetary policy, which goes against Trump’s vocal demands for more rate cuts from Powell.
Bonds so far seem to be an early winner from the announcement, whereas Bitcoin and silver were big losers on Friday, with the latter down over 30% in a single trading session.
Despite bonds surviving the Fed news, there is plenty of data this week that can deliver a knockout punch.
Manufacturing and Service sector surveys litter the weekly calendar, plus vehicle sales on Thursday.
There is also a triple threat of employment data starting on Wednesday with ADP payrolls, Challenger layoffs and Jobless Claims on Thursday, and the heavy-hitting Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) employment report on Friday.
Employment data is part of my “Big 3” market movers, along with inflation data and The Fed.
Employment (NFP/ADP)
Inflation (CPI/PCE)
The Fed (FOMC/Minutes)
Mortgage rates have held their ground well since the start of 2026, hovering around multi-year lows.
The bond surge that started it all came after August’s NFP report surprised markets last summer.
Therefore, investors will lean heavily on this week’s employment data, even as tensions in Iran escalated (again) over the weekend.
Monday I will take a deeper look at how mortgage rate prices, bond spreads, and longer-term trends are unfolding in my Monday Data Deluge.
The latest Lock-O-Meter risk scores and rate lock recommendations will be posted with it.
In the meantime, check out this week’s Mortgage Rate Price Tracker for a closer look at how specific mortgage rates have changed.
Thanks for reading.
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