Mortgage rates look to extend their winning streak as Fed rate decision looms 📉✂️🏦
The Week Ahead
WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
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Bond markets have stringed together three straight weeks of gains, helping mortgage rates mostly recover from the ides of March.
This week’s Mortgage Rate Impact Calendar is relatively quiet, with manufacturing surveys commanding the most attention.
Markets will be monitoring the situation in Iran carefully, as will the Fed, as the next FOMC rate decision arrives next week (April 29).
RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
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The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.
higher risk scores = lean towards locking
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Closing Window
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[ 15 Days ] — 72 🟠
Mortgage rates have continued to improve over the past three weeks as the Iran ceasefire reduced immediate oil-price pressure, but a quiet calendar this week means any new headlines could quickly reverse recent gains.
[ 30 Days ] — 59 🟡
The recent bond-friendly momentum has been steady, but modest. This week’s upcoming manufacturing surveys and housing data will hopefully pad the recent improvements ahead of the Fed’s rate decision next week, but Iran is still the biggest wild card - as it has been for 7-weeks.
[ 45 Days ] — 49 🟡
With this week’s lighter data flow, and more time to absorb unexpected Fed policy decisions, longer timelines can again lean towards floating, while closely monitoring geopolitical uncertainties.
[ 60 Days ] — 38🟢
The recent bond rally has provided some breathing room and hopes for a return to multi-year lows. Geopolitical risk aside, there will be multiple rounds of employment and inflation data within this time window that can alter your lock strategy.
If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.
I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.
Thanks for reading.
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