Mortgage rates face nightmare scenario after latest shutdown 🔪👹📊
The Week Ahead
WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
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Last week saw the return of “bad news is good news” for mortgage rates, at least in the context of volatility for risk assets (i.e., crypto and stocks).
Read more in Thursday’s “Flash Update “ Substack post.
Maybe that margin call washout is done, maybe it’s just beginning, and maybe bonds are just beating their own drum in the face of uncertainty.
This week will answer many of these questions...
Last Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll employment report was rescheduled to this Wednesday after a short government shutdown, pushing the CPI inflation data to Friday the 13th (how fitting).
NFP Employment and CPI inflation are part of my “Big 3” market movers, along with The Fed.
Employment (NFP/ADP)
Inflation (CPI/PCE)
The Fed (FOMC/Minutes)
Getting 2 out of the 3 in the same week is a rare blood moon type of event that could mean apocalyptic things for markets.
Irrespective of how other markets respond, this “nightmare” combo will hopefully ignite the next phase of a data driven bond rally that started last summer.
Because of the uneventful sideways grind last week, and the rescheduling of Non-Farm Payroll, there will be no Data Deluge this Monday, but stay tuned for updates throughout the week.
In the meantime, check out this week’s Mortgage Rate Price Tracker for a closer look at how specific mortgage rates have changed.
Thanks for reading.
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