TABLE OF CONTENTS
MARKET BRIEF 📰
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Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report (NFP) was the main act of a busy week for employment data.
The release showed 162K new jobs were added in August, more than tripling consensus expectations of 53K.
July’s previously reported 23K loss was also revised to a 21K gain.
The methods and reliability of survey data can result in contrary market reactions, especially with NFP.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% as both employment and the labor force grew.
Those details helped prevent the blowout headline from causing a much larger bond-market meltdown.
RATE IMPACT 💥
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The net-result was a mild bond sell-off, but nothing as severe as the headline jobs number would normally suggest.
However, today’s reaction leaves mortgage rate pricing 23 basis points higher over the trailing 30 days, adding $228 per $100K of loan amount.
The rate hike debate now shifts towards next week’s CPI inflation data.
Following today’s jobs report, the probability of a 25-bps September rate hike increased from roughly 49% to 58%.
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