Mortgage rates face final nail in coffin from jobs data as new peace deal emerges 📅
The Week Ahead
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RATE RECAP ⏪
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WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
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Mortgage rates are facing a week of critical employment data after an ugly month of geopolitically fueled bond weakness.
But wait … is another U.S. / Iran peace deal on the table?
Trump suggested the two sides are again moving toward an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Skepticism will be heavy considering the last deal didn’t even survive a month.
Bond markets had little faith from the start – mortgage-backed securities began losing ground the day the deal was signed, and key coupons have since surrendered 169–222 bps in pricing.
If a deal is signed, investors can refocus on the employment reports, most notably Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the “official” unemployment rate.
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