Mortgage rates eager for action as data doldrums drag on 📊🥱⌛
Midweek Market Update
Included in this update are the following sections:
MIDWEEK RECAP ⏪
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The data doldrums which defined the previous short week continue to drag on past the midweek hump and into the final days of February.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates quietly sit near their multi-year best (see Rate Price Index section).
This week’s manufacturing data has been uneventful and overshadowed by earnings (NVIDIA) and Trump’s State of the Union.
Tuesday’s Shiller home price index came in on the nose, with national home prices increasing 1.27% year-over-year.
IMPACT CALENDAR 📅
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We have PPI on Friday, a more forward-looking inflation metric, but it is unlikely to be what jolts the bond market out of its slumber.
It feels like volatility won’t thaw off until next Friday when the Non-Farm Payroll employment report arrives.
Otherwise, we are still two weeks out from CPI inflation (Mar 11), and the next Fed FOMC rate decision is three weeks away.
RATE PRICE INDEX 📉
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Mortgage rates do not rise or fall, instead the PRICE of rates change.
The LendZen Index calculates a daily change in the price of mortgage rates by tracking a spectrum of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
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24-Hour: +2 bps ($20 per $100K)
5-Day: -5 bps (-$45)
10-Day: -30 bps (-$294)
30-Day: 40 bps (-$395)
Learn more about the LendZen Index and explore the full data series at LendZen.substack.com
MORTGAGE SPREADS 🧈
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Published daily with the LendZen Index is the LendZen Mortgage-Treasury Spread.
The LMTS uses actual bond yields to create a historically consistent, and reliable, data set.
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Feb 18: 0.83
Feb 25: 0.84
24h: +1 bps
5d: +1 bps
12m Avg: 1.15
YoY: -41 bps
Learn more about the importance of accurate mortgage spreads on this Substack post.
The spread between MBS yields and the 10-Treasury Note continues to hover at multi-year lows.
RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
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The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.
higher risk scores = lean towards locking
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Closing Window
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[ 15 Days ] — 81 🔴
Quiet markets absent volatility shave a touch of urgency, but rates sitting at multi-year best levels still argue for protecting current pricing within short timelines.
[ 30 Days ] — 59 🟡
The absence of near-term catalysts reduces risk modestly, though inflation and jobs data ahead keep this window in caution territory.
[ 45 Days ] — 52 🟡
Strong recent rate price gains and limited calendar risk support patience, with flexibility to reassess as the March “Big 3” data approaches.
[ 60 Days ] — 35 🟢
Nothing has changed the longer-term outlook; macro conditions remain bond-friendly and floating continues to make sense.
Thanks for reading.
If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com
LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.
You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.
LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.