Mortgage rates celebrate small win after jobs data shocker 😱📊👷♂️
Midweek Market Update
Included in this update are the following sections:
MIDWEEK RECAP ⏪
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This week had a scary setup with jobs data (Non-Farm Payroll) and CPI landing in the same week – an unusual occurrence that could be a nightmare for mortgage rates, as discussed in the “Week Ahead” Substack post.
Today we got our first dose of heavy-hitting data with the NFP jobs report.
Despite the monthly change in new jobs wildly beating expectations (130k vs 70k) the bond market response was palatable.
Survey data, also referred to as “soft data”, can be noisy and unreliable, especially the NFP.
(hard data = factual, quantitative data)
The knee-jerk reaction at time of release was a sharp bond sell-off, fueled by the unemployment rate dipping to 4.3% (-0.2).
However, a bond bloodbath was averted when investors began to process the massive revisions to the 2025 figures.
Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed over 1-million fewer jobs in 2025 than previously reported, with sizeable revisions to the month-to-month changes that greatly impact markets.
IMPACT CALENDAR 📅
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All things considered, the Non-Farm Payroll left mortgage rates relatively unscathed, but the CPI inflation report still looms on Friday the 13th (quite fitting).
The Consumer Price Index is a tricky one to prepare for since lower inflation is generally bond-friendly, but bonds could just as easily lose ground if the data suggests more aggressive rate cuts from the Fed.
RATE PRICE INDEX 📉
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Mortgage rates do not rise or fall, instead the PRICE of rates change.
The LendZen Index calculates a daily change in the price of mortgage rates by tracking a spectrum of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
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24-Hour: +6 bps ($56 per $100K)
5-Day: -10 bps (-$103)
10-Day: +2 bps ($24)
30-Day: -16 bps (-$160)
Learn more about the LendZen Index and explore the full data series at LendZen.substack.com
MORTGAGE SPREADS 🧈
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Published daily with the LendZen Index is the LendZen Mortgage-Treasury Spread.
The LMTS uses actual bond yields to create a historically consistent, and reliable, data set.
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Feb 4: 0.78
Feb 11: 0.82
24h: 0 bps
5d: +4 bps
12m Avg: 1.17
YoY: -46 bps
Learn more about the importance of accurate mortgage spreads on this Substack post.
The spread between MBS yields and the 10-Treasury Note continues to hover at multi-year lows.
RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
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The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.
higher risk scores = lean towards locking
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Closing Window
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[ 15 Days ] — 80 🔴
The worst-case NFP outcome was avoided as revisions helped cool the “hot labor” narrative. That slightly reduces immediate lock pressure, but CPI keeps short-term float risk elevated.
[ 30 Days ] — 65 🟠
With jobs data now behind us, the next obstacle is inflation. Volatility risk is in the short term, and so the slightly longer the window benefits from putting this “nightmare” week behind us.
[ 45 Days ] — 57 🟡
Employment risk has faded (for now) and in a perfect world any CPI-driven bond selling will be absorbed before this window closes. The longer-term windows continue to favor patience.
[ 60 Days ] — 47 🟡
The broader trend remains bond-friendly, even if recent price action has been uninspired. As long as inflation doesn’t result in a meaningful break above the current “rate price” range, floating is still justified.
Thanks for reading.
If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com
LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.
You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.
LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.