Mortgage Rate Price Tracker 🏠📉🔍 (FEB 2 – 6)
Monitoring the change in price of specific mortgage rates
Included in this post are the following:
THE TRACKER 🔭
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Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.
However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.
The Mortgage Rate Price Tracker (MRPT) illustrates this dynamic by showing how the price of each rate changed within the time series.
The higher the rate, the lower the fee (points). Some higher rates pay a rebate; this is illustrated on the tracker with negative (-) points.
When the “total change” is negative it means a reduction in the price of the rate.
The MRPT is a more “rate and loan program” specific example of the LendZen Index, which monitors a much broader set of rates and mortgage bond coupons.
Both are effective for visualizing how the PRICE of mortgage rates has changed, while the LendZen Index is published daily at LendZen.substack.com
WEEK 1 📉
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Since the LendZen Index has a variety of time series, the MRPT will focus on just the current month’s activity.
Attached are the results for February Week 1.
The rates in the VA 30 tracker now include 4.75%.
You can also explore the results for January Week 4 on this previous Substack post.
RATE RECAP ⏪
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This week was hopefully the return of “bad news is good news” for mortgage rates.
At least in the context of volatility for risk assets (i.e., crypto and stocks).
Weaker economic data has been responsible for the strong surge in bond prices we have seen since July 2025.
However, the rally in bonds was occurring despite other asset markets surging to new all-time highs.
Perhaps bonds are reclaiming their role as the “smart money” leading indicator after a harsh reality check finally arrived for over-leveraged investors.
Maybe that margin call washout is done, maybe it’s just beginning, and maybe bonds are just beating their own drum in the face of uncertainty.
Next week will answer many of those questions as the Non-Farm Payroll data that was expected this past Friday was rescheduled for this Wednesday, pushing CPI inflation back until Friday.
Irrespective of how other markets respond this “nightmare” combo will hopefully ignite the next phase of a data driven bond rally that started last summer.
NFP Employment and CPI inflation are part of my “Big 3” market movers, along with The Fed.
Employment (NFP/ADP)
Inflation (CPI/PCE)
The Fed (FOMC/Minutes) )
Getting 2 out of the 3 in the same week is a rare blood moon type of event that could mean apocalyptic things for markets.
Whether bonds once again rise from the dead in the face of bad news is something mortgage rates are anxiously waiting to find out.
As far as things went this week, it was mostly an up-and-down repositioning ahead of the Big 3 double dose.
Further insight into next week’s events, along with the latest Rate Impact Calendar, will be posted in Sunday’s Week Ahead.
Thanks for reading.
If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com
LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.
You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.
DISCLOSURES
LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.
