Mortgage Rate Data Deluge 🏠📉🔒 (JAN 26)
Here is a deluge of mortgage rate data to start your week!
Included this week are the following sections:
MARKET RECAP ⏪
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Despite all the geopolitical drama this year, including last week’s carry trade volatility, bonds have consistently found a bid.
Recent outsized performance from mortgage bonds was due mostly to Trump’s proposal to spend a $200B Fannie/Freddie cash pile on Agency MBS.
Although the initial knee jerk reaction to that news has reversed, mortgage rate prices were still better Friday than the 2025 low on October 21.
See more in the Rate Price Index section below.
RATE PRICE INDEX 📉
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Mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall.
The full range of rates is always available, and instead the price of each rate changes based on the trading of individual mortgage bonds.
The LendZen Index calculates a daily change in the price of mortgage rates by tracking a spectrum of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
This provides borrowers with a more specific measurement of how the cost to obtain a mortgage is changing, regardless of the lender, rate, or credit score.
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01/23/2026
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24-Hour: -1 bps (-$10 per $100K)
5-Day: +17 bps ($173)
10-Day: +41 bps ($409)
30-Day: -23 bps (-$226)
60-Day: -13 bps (-$131)
120-Day: -216 bps (-$2156)
Mortgage rate prices jumped after Martin Luther King Jr. Day but managed to hold steady for the remainder of the short week.
Mortgage rates are looking waiting for something more substantial than the sugar high of a Trump outburst.
When we zoom out further there has been a lot of bullish momentum for bonds that suggests the current range has staying power, but the first real test comes this week with the Fed rate decision.
THE TRACKER 🔭
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The LendZen Index monitors the change in price across a broad set of rates and mortgage bond coupons, whereas the Mortgage Rate Price Tracker is more “rate and loan program” specific.
Both are an example of how mortgage rates do not rise or fall, but instead it is their price that changes.
Since the LendZen Index has a variety of time series, the MRPT focuses on the current month’s activity.
You can explore the full results from January Week 3 on this Substack post.
MBS PRICING 🏦
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MBS coupons are sold at half-percent increments, while their price moves in 32nds (ticks).
ex. (0-04) = 4/32 = 12.5 bps
100-00 acts as the starting line, also referred to as PAR.
The higher the coupon price, the less expensive the rates will be that are sold into that security.
Therefore, an increase in the price of mortgage bonds is good for mortgage rates.
Learn more about the dynamics of MBS pricing and how it impacts your mortgage options in any of the bi-weekly “Rate Snapshot” Substack posts.
Mortgage bond prices have had a volatile two weeks and are shaking off the last of the euphoria that followed Trump’s MBS purchase proposal.
MORTGAGE SPREADS 🧈
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Published daily with the LendZen Index is the LendZen Mortgage-Treasury Spread.
The LMTS uses actual bond yields to create a historically consistent, and reliable, data set.
Learn more about the importance of accurately calculating spreads on this Substack post.
The spread between mortgage bonds and the U.S. 10-Year widened 3-bps during the week but are still over 40-bps lower than the same time last year.
Jan 20: 0.79
Jan 23: 0.82
5d: +3 bps
30d Avg: 0.88
12m Avg: 1.19
YoY: -47 bps
While the Trump bond rally has faded, MBS-Treasury spreads remained tight and within just 6-bps of a multi-year low.
HOUSING DATA 🏠
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Here are the latest housing market stats, with trends from the last 90 days.
The U.S. median list price is $419,000, unchanged since last week.
Inventories ticked up slightly (1.3%) but are still way down 19% in the last 90 days.
Days on market was unchanged with an average of 133.
Price reductions softened with a 90-day national average of 34%.
WEEK AHEAD 📅
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The emphasis this week will of course be on the Fed, especially after the Trump DOJ subpoenaed Chairmen Powell two-weeks ago, in what many consider to be a pressure tactic for more rate cuts.
However, a purely data-driven Fed doesn’t seem to have much room for another 25-bps.
It’s also worth pointing out 5 of the last 6 rate cuts have not been bond friendly.
I suspect another rate cut this week will make 6 out of 7
Read more in yesterday’s Week Ahead.
RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
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The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.
higher risk scores = lean towards locking
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Closing Window
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[ 15 Days ] -- 83 🔴
With the price of mortgage rates already 41 bps more expensive over the last 10-days (LendZen Index) the potential for further bond weakness is elevated with the FOMC rate decision this week and a fresh NFP employment report within the 15-day window.
[ 30 Days ] -- 71 🟠
Early whispers of another potential shutdown keep event risk high, but there is also the potential of a bond friendly NFP and a more dovish Powell during the post-FOMC presser.
[ 45 Days ] -- 59 🟡
At this point the market will have absorbed a full round of Big 3 data (FOMC, CPI, NFP), which will give us a better read on which direction bonds are headed.
[ 60 Days ] -- 48 🟢
The two-month outlook for global growth and geopolitics suggests a strong bid for bonds continues, even if the path is choppy and longer-term inflation remains a wild card.
If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.
I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.
Thanks for reading.
If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com
LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.
LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.