Mortgage rates lose in battle of clashing data 🥊📈😞

Flash Market Update

The best time to start an inflationary war is never.

The 2nd best time is when economic data offsets the inflationary impulse.

Operation Epic Fury in Iran was months in the making, but the timing of its launch presents a lot of questions.

The Non-Farm Employment report that was released on Friday was one of the worst since the pandemic (-$92K vs +55k expectations) with the unemployment rate increasing (4.4%; +0.1) for the first time since August 2025.

There was also a massive downward revision to the native-born worker component (-2.5M).

This type of ugly report would have normally kicked off a mega bond rally, just like the one in August that ushered in the ongoing bond bull market.

However, today’s NFP merely served to contain what would have been catastrophic damage from the inflationary impact of oil surging 40% this week to over $90 a barrel.

Behind the scenes the “soft data” survey of the NFP was most likely already painting a gloomy picture last Friday when the surprise military operation kicked off.

Did the forthcoming employment report nudge the Trump administration into action? Maybe.

Speculation and conspiracy theories aside, one deflationary data set isn’t going to keep bond yields contained if the conflict is prolonged and oil prices go parabolic.

For now, mortgage rates managed to hold their ground today after a rough week.

How long can bond markets put up a fight remains to be seen.

At the end of each week I post the Mortgage Rate Price Tracker which follows specific rates throughout the month to illustrate how the price of each has changed.

Stay tuned tomorrow for the latest update based on the start of the month – it will be a contrasting report given the sharp move higher since last Friday.

Thanks for reading.

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