Mortgage rates lose ground after critical data delayed 📉⏳📆
Included in this update are the following sections:
MIDWEEK RECAP ⏪
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This week promised to be a defining moment for the start of 2026 and one that would hopefully establish current mortgage rate pricing as the floor, not the ceiling.
Markets were anticipating a triple threat of employment data starting yesterday with the JOLTS job openings report.
The heavier hitting employment report, Non-Farm Payroll, was slated to cap off the week on Friday.
NFP Employment data is part of my “Big 3” market movers, along with inflation data and The Fed.
Employment (NFP/ADP)
Inflation (CPI/PCE)
The Fed (FOMC/Minutes)
However, because of a short-lived government shutdown most of this week’s data has been rescheduled.
The end result is a lot less drama (so far).
IMPACT CALENDAR 📅
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The Non-Farm Payroll report has been rescheduled for February 11 (Wednesday).
This pushes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report back to Friday the 13th (how fitting).
Having 2 of the “Big 3” in one week is somewhat of a nightmare, but hopefully bonds escape in one-piece.
**Events marked purple have been rescheduled due to the short government shutdown.
RATE PRICE INDEX 📉
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Mortgage rates do not rise or fall, instead the PRICE of rates change.
The LendZen Index calculates a daily change in the price of mortgage rates by tracking a spectrum of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
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24-Hour: +5 bps ($48 per $100K)
5-Day: +28 bps ($282)
10-Day: +15 bps ($151)
30-Day: +9 bps ($90)
Learn more about the LendZen Index and explore the full data series at LendZen.substack.com
MORTGAGE SPREADS 🧈
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Published daily with the LendZen Index is the LendZen Mortgage-Treasury Spread.
The LMTS uses actual bond yields to create a historically consistent, and reliable, data set.
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Jan 28: 0.73
Feb 4: 0.78
24h: -1 bps
5d: +5 bps
12m Avg: 1.18
YoY: -55 bps
Learn more about the importance of accurate mortgage spreads on this Substack post.
Mortgage bonds continue to outperform government bonds, helping the spread between MBS yields and the 10-Treasury Note to hover at multi-year lows.
RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
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The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.
higher risk scores = lean towards locking
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Closing Window
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[ 15 Days ] — 81 🔴
Although rates are holding their ground NFP approaches next week, leaving this short window vulnerable.
[ 30 Days ] — 66 🟠
Event risks are the outlier to watch if you continue to float, but mortgage spreads remain a stabilizing force amidst the chaos.
[ 45 Days ] — 58 🟡
The goal should be to survive this full cycle of Big-3 data and look for markets to reestablish a clear direction.
[ 60 Days ] — 47 🟡
The longer outlook still favors floating, with global growth concerns and strong bond demand outweighing near-term turbulence.
Thanks for reading.
If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com
LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.
You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.
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