• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage-backed securities are once again flying dangerously close to the point of no return.

Since “Operation Epic Fury” began, mortgage rate pricing is now over 300-basis points higher.

That means the same rate quoted in February now costs $3,000 more per $100K of loan amount, or more than $15,000 on a $500K loan.

But it is the last two months of Fed hike fears and geopolitical turbulence that have really strained the bond market, leaving mortgage rates in a fragile position ahead of this week’s heavy haul of PMI surveys and employment data.

Can mortgage rates navigate the chaos and find a safe place to land, or is it time to assume the crash position?

One thing is for sure; this is the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

Float ​ ≤ ​ 50 ​ ≤ ​ Lock
------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 84 🔴
MBS are sitting near a technical breaking point after a sharp five-day sell-off. Friday’s NFP, plus renewed geopolitical tension leave short closings with little margin for error. Locking is highly encouraged.

[ 30 Days ] — 73 🟠
The 30-day horizon remains in high alert, with a stacked week of manufacturing, services, and employment. Meanwhile, persistent Fed rate-hike chatter combined with unyielding geopolitical risk continues to snuff out bond rallies.

[ 45 Days ] — 62 🟠
Still enough runway to let this week’s data settle, but compared to three weeks ago floating is harder to justify. Especially, now that the market is pricing “hike risk” instead of just hawkish rhetoric. This window should watch, not relax.

[ 60 Days ] — 51🟡
The longest window remains the most defensible place to float, but increased rate hike odds add a new layer of risk versus last week. This week is meaningful, but sitting this far out also means another full round of Big 3 events.

The Lock-O-Meter provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds (mortgage rates).

The higher the score, the more a borrower should lean towards locking.

For short closing windows a lock is generally recommended because the rate you choose is more important.

I discuss how to make a savvy rate choice using the “long game” approach in this  Substack post. 👇

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

Here is the latest housing market data with charts.

Explore housing inventory, home prices, and see which markets are performing the best.

Click here for a list of all 👉 Housing Market Snapshots

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

• Single-Family: $442,500

• Condominium: $365,000

MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET

• Single-Family: 63

• Condominium: 84

INVENTORY FOR SALE

• Single-Family: 874,784

• Condominium: 233,853

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

• Single-Family: $214

• Condominium: $270

NATIONAL ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index – JUN 30

• 1 Year: +1.53%

• 3 Year: +2.97%

• 5 Year: +5.21%

HIGHEST ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH

Intercontinental Exchange Index – JUN 31

• Rochester, NY: +8.1%

• Syracuse, NY: +7.1%

• Hartford, CT: +6.6%

LOWEST ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH

Intercontinental Exchange Index – MAY 31

• San Jose, CA: -0.9%

• Houston, TX: -0.9%

• Dallas, TX: -1.0%

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Bond markets started the week on the right foot with a calm Monday.

Mortgage rate pricing finished the day 14 bps better than Friday’s close.

Tuesday brings a double-team of housing data with both the FHFA and Case-Shiller home price indices.

But the real action starts Wednesday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, durable goods orders, and the second estimate of Q2 GDP.

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins Thursday, but Friday is the main event when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his keynote.

The same day, the Labor Department publishes a preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision to Non-Farm Payrolls.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

Float ​ ≤ ​ 50 ​ ≤ ​ Lock
------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 75 🟠
Monday’s calm start and modest improvement in mortgage pricing certainly help, but PCE, Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote, and the NFP revisions all land this week. Short closings remain exposed to all of the above and ever-present geopolitical surprises.

[ 30 Days ] — 66 🟠
The LendZen Index shows rate pricing is mostly unchanged across various time series (5D: +3 bps, 10D: -6 bps, and 30D: +8 bps), but in reality extreme volatility has made timing a lock an elusive endeavor. This week’s economic calendar is likely to add to that frustration, especially with Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair.

[ 45 Days ] — 55 🟡
More room exists to absorb this week’s data and Warsh’s Jackson Hole message. This makes floating reasonable, but stay vigilant especially as the next FOMC rate decision approaches.

[ 60 Days ] — 45🟡
Floating here is more defensible, but another round of “Big 3” events (NFP, CPI, FOMC) will pass before your closing date. Meanwhile, Hormuz flare ups might not rattle markets as much but could continue stifling the types of improvement that incentive floating.

The Lock-O-Meter provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds (mortgage rates).

The higher the score, the more a borrower should lean towards locking.

For short closing windows a lock is generally recommended because the rate you choose is more important.

I discuss how to make a savvy rate choice using the “long game” approach in this  Substack post. 👇

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Hopefully this is the week bond prices finally break free of the choppy sideways range that has kept mortgage rates prisoner for the last month.

Geopolitics aside, investors will be processing a deluge of manufacturing data throughout the week.

The housing market will also take the stage with reports covering homebuilder sentiment, building permits, housing starts, and pending home sales.

However, the headliner will be Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.

Although recent economic data has reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike next month, the minutes could still rattle bond markets – especially if the overall tone is more hawkish than anticipated.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Market Brief

• Rate Impact

• Rate Snapshot

MARKET BRIEF 📰
-----------------

Since February 27 the biggest pain for the bond market has been the Iran situation, pushing key mortgage-bond coupons 220 to 350 basis points lower.

Meanwhile, this week was filled with inflation-focused reports, including CPI and PPI.

Fortunately, the Consumer Price Index was in line with expectations and Producer Price Index had no surprises either.

RATE IMPACT 💥
----------------

Mortgage rates do not technically rise or fall. Instead, it is the price of rates that changes while the full menu of options remains constant.

Bond prices have an INVERSE relationship with the price of mortgage rates.

Economic data has been bond-friendly lately, keeping a lid on things. At least in the context of the dangerous levels tested just a few weeks ago.

This week’s inflation data helped mortgage rates improve again, but Friday gave back some of those gains despite no major headlines that warranted the reversal.

Ultimately, mortgage rate pricing still finished the week improved, but remains virtually unchanged over the last 30 trading days.

However, there is a lot more ground to recover.

The same rate quoted before the Middle East conflict began would now cost $2,594 more per $100K of loan amount (259 bps), or nearly $13,000 more on a $500K loan

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates finally came up for air on Friday after a weaker than expected jobs report sparked a strong bond rally.

Despite the positive trend unfolding, there is little time to catch our breath.

It is a jam-packed week led by the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, followed by retail sales on Friday.

Meanwhile, plenty of uncertainty remains around the latest peace talks involving Iran.

Although economic data has recently resuscitated bond prices, the Strait of Hormuz remains the choke point for mortgage rates.

Since the conflict began, the price of mortgage rates has risen 270 bps, or $2,701 per $100K of loan amount.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Price Tracker

• 30-Year Rates

• 15-Year Rates

• VA 30-Year Rates

• MBS Explained

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

July brought a painful resurgence of geopolitical uncertainty as bond markets reacted to the inflationary potential of ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Economic data was largely in line with expectations, perhaps helping put a lid on an otherwise ugly month for bond prices and mortgage rate pricing.

The end result was a swift dismissal of peace deal optimism and a return to precarious levels last tested in March, with the price of lower rates nearly doubling since then.

We have stood at this same precipice of despair several times in recent years and managed to recover each time.

The exception was 2023 – what followed then was a total bloodbath and the worst mortgage rates in more than two decades.

PRICE TRACKER 🔭
------------------

Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.

However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.

The Mortgage Rate Price Tracker (MRPT) illustrates this dynamic by showing how the price of each rate changed within the time series.

Some higher rates pay a rebate; this is illustrated on the tracker with negative (-) points.

When the “total change” in the table is negative it means a reduction in the price of the rate.

The MRPT is a “rate and loan program” specific example of the LendZen Index, which monitors a much broader set of rates and mortgage bond coupons.

Both are effective for visualizing how the PRICE of mortgage rates has changed, while the LendZen Index is published daily at LendZen.Substack.com

CONVENTIONAL 30-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

CONVENTIONAL 15-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

VA 30-YEAR 📉
--------------

MBS EXPLAINED 📖
-------------------

How much a mortgage-backed security is priced below or above par (100-00) determines the “price” of the mortgage rates packaged into that MBS coupon.

For example, the higher an MBS is priced above par, the less expensive the rates will be that are sold into that security.
(ex. 102-00 > 101-00)

The Note rates of each mortgage sold into a specific MBS typically range between 0.250 – 0.625 above the coupon rate, depending on the loan type.
(ex. 6.250% – 6.625% rates ~ 6.00 MBS)

The spread between the mortgage Note rate and the coupon rate is retained as a servicing fee.
(ex. 0.250 – 0.625)

This is why a 6.00 note rate is not sold into a 6.00 coupon and is therefore priced based on lower coupons.
(ex. 6.00% rate ~ 5.50 MBS)

As a result, the shift between different coupons can disproportionality affect the PRICE of the lower Note rate despite the close proximity of the two rates.
(ex. X.00% rate vs X.25% rate)

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates are facing a week of critical employment data after an ugly month of geopolitically fueled bond weakness.

But wait … is another U.S. / Iran peace deal on the table?

Trump suggested the two sides are again moving toward an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Skepticism will be heavy considering the last deal didn’t even survive a month.

Bond markets had little faith from the start – mortgage-backed securities began losing ground the day the deal was signed, and key coupons have since surrendered 169–222 bps in pricing.

If a deal is signed, investors can refocus on the employment reports, most notably Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the “official” unemployment rate.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• The Brief

• The Impact

• Rate Snapshot

THE BRIEF 📰
------------

Things were starting to look promising for mortgage rates last weekend after peace talks were expected to resume (again).

However, midweek doubts emerged and by Friday the price of key mortgage-bond coupons had fallen 169 to 222 basis points since the June peace deal was signed.

But renewed geopolitical weakness wasn’t the only blow.

The yen was sitting near a 40-year low when Japanese authorities intervened to boost its value, followed by coordinated support from the U.S. Treasury.

Subscribe now

THE IMPACT 💥
--------------

Mortgage rates do not technically rise or fall. Instead, it is the price of rates that changes while the full menu of options remains constant.

Bond prices have an INVERSE relationship with the price of mortgage rates.

The yen rescue effort likely required Japan to sell dollar-denominated reserves, adding further pressure to an already fragile U.S. bond market.

Mortgage bonds were less favored on the day, which is reflected in the wider MBS-Treasury spreads.

Mortgage bonds are now sitting in a very delicate position.

The current levels have been tested frequently going all the way back to 2023.

What followed back then was a total bloodbath and the worst mortgage rates in over two decades.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates are determined by the price of mortgage bonds (mortgage-backed securities), not by the Federal Reserve or its Federal Open Market Committee.

However, the FOMC rate decision does carry weight, even if only as a delayed reaction mechanism to how bond markets have already been pricing inflation.

With the U.S. 2-Year Note now 75-bps above the “effective” Fed Funds rate (3.63), it’s easy to see why there is discussion that a rate hike is on the table for this week’s meeting.

But what most don’t realize is FOMC rate decisions usually have an opposite impact of longer duration bond prices; as a result mortgage rates tend to improve on the news of a Fed rate hike and vice versa.

This is because inflation is the bigger concern for bond markets, and rate hikes are intended to slow down economic activity, vis-a-vis reducing inflationary pressure.

Although bond pricing is begging for a hike, the consensus is the FOMC will hold the Fed Funds unchanged.

Therefore, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Durable Goods, and the Employment Cost Index are all bigger wild cards this week given the inflation insights each data set reveals.

Do you think the FOMC should raise their overnight lending rate this week?

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

Float ​ ≤ ​ 50 ​ ≤ ​ Lock
------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 86 🔴
This is one of the highest-risk short-closing weeks on the calendar. Mortgage pricing is already under heavy pressure (up 149 bps in last 30-days per the LendZen Index) and now the market has to absorb Durable Goods, PCE, GDP, the FOMC decision, the Warsh press conference, and the Employment Cost Index! Short closings should lock unless in a high-stakes gambling mood.

[ 30 Days ] — 77 🟠
The mid-summer technical sell-off has left a deep mark with serious cumulative damage, which could take considerable time to recover even with a peaceful outcome in the Middle East.

[ 45 Days ] — 66 🟠
The 45-day window still has some time to recover but the setup is too damaged to stay neutral, as a result this timeline crosses back into orange alert territory.

[ 60 Days ] — 55🟡
While a 60-day horizon offers enough time to recalibrate after the FOMC and possible Iran peace deal 2.0, this window will also need to survive two full cycles of “Big 3” economic date before closing. Risk-tolerant borrowers can float cautiously, but be prepared to lock if things get worse.

The Lock-O-Meter provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds (mortgage rates).

The higher the score, the more a borrower should lean towards locking.

For short closing windows a lock is generally recommended because the rate you choose is more important.

I discuss how to make a savvy rate choice using the “long game” approach in this  Substack post. 👇

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

TABLE OF CONTENTS ⬆️

• The Brief

• The Impact

• Rate Snapshot

THE BRIEF 📰
------------

The key driver of mortgage rates in the U.S. is the bond market, specifically the price of mortgage bonds (mortgage-backed securities).

Bond markets in general have not been a fan of U.S. military operations in Iran, but there was some hope following the “Memorandum of Understanding” in June.

However, the unraveling of that peace deal in recent days has left its mark on mortgage rates.

Although last week managed to pinch off a small win, things have been getting messier by the day.

THE IMPACT 💥
--------------

Mortgage rates do not technically rise or fall, instead it is the price of rates that changes while the full menu of options remains constant.

Bond prices have an INVERSE impact on the price of mortgage rates.

The steady decline in bond prices this month means the price of ALL RATES has increased.

In just the last five trading sessions, mortgage rate pricing has given up 89 basis points.

If quoted today, the same rate from last week would now cost $888 more per $100K of loan amount.

That’s a staggering increase of $4,440 on a $500K loan in just a week.

Should homebuyers hope for a quick recovery in rates or is it better to stop the bleeding now with a lock?

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

TABLE OF CONTENTS ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates are still showing signs of life after ending the week modestly better despite the escalating situation in Iran.

The small gains were aided in part by MBS-Treasury spreads holding firm.

Unfortunately, things continued to spiral over the weekend, with oil futures climbing back above $80.

This week looks quiet on the surface, but the Conference Board Leading Economic Index on Monday will set the tone early for the other business activity surveys later in the week.

Each has the potential to pull the plug on mortgage rates if survey data reveals a war driven inflationary impulse.

Do you think we have seen the highs yet this year for mortgage rates?

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

Float ​ ≤ ​ 50 ​ ≤ ​ Lock
------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 79 🟠
Mortgage rates remain pressured near recent highs amid renewed Iran/Hormuz tensions and oil climbing above $80. A lighter data week still carries inflation risk from business surveys that could reinforce upside pressure on short-term closings.

[ 30 Days ] — 68 🟠
Escalating Middle East risks and oil-driven inflation fears keep caution high despite reason for optimism following last week’s resilience. However, the technical bloodbath from earlier in July should not be so quickly forgotten, with the 30-day LendZen index sitting at a 64-bps deficit over the past month.

[ 45 Days ] — 58 🟡
The 45-day timeline moves back into yellow. The absence of a Big 3 event (CPI, NFP, FOMC) provides some breathing room but floating is not necessarily safe, it is simply more defensible than it was last week.

[ 60 Days ] — 48🟡
The longer runway offers some recovery potential if war tensions ease (again) but the potential is just as high for the opposite result. Meanwhile, the double cycle of Big 3 data in this window will very likely leave its mark on risk scores two months from now.

The Lock-O-Meter provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds (mortgage rates).

The higher the score, the more a borrower should lean towards locking.

For short closing windows a lock is generally recommended because the rate you choose is more important.

I discuss how to make a savvy rate choice using the “long game” approach in this  Substack post. 👇

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

TABLE OF CONTENTS ⬆️

In anticipation of tomorrow’s real estate data, here are the current housing stats...

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

• Single-Family: $449,900

• Condominium: $375,000

MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET

• Single-Family: 56

• Condominium: 70

INVENTORY FOR SALE

• Single-Family: 841,547

• Condominium: 233,030

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

• Single-Family: $217

• Condominium: $277

NATIONAL ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index – APR 30

• 1 Year: +0.84%

• 3 Year: +3.33%

• 5 Year: +5.90%

HIGHEST ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH

Intercontinental Exchange Index – MAY 31

• Scranton, PA: +6.9%

• Rochester, NY: +6.3%

• Bridgeport, CT: +6.0%

LOWEST ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH

Intercontinental Exchange Index – MAY 31

• Jacksonville, FL: -1.5%

• Tucson, AZ: -1.6%

• Houston, TX: -1.7%

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

• 3-Step Guide

• When to Refi

• Custom Breakeven

• Your Timeline

• Pricing Explained

• Zero Cost Refi

• Rate Snapshot

3-STEP GUIDE 📋
----------------

The attached breakeven table “estimates” how many years of new loan savings it will take to recover potential upfront costs.

Here are the 3-steps to know if you are in range to refinance using the breakeven table:

1. Find your current NOTE rate in either horizontal x-axis (there are two subsets)

2. Compare it with any of the refinance rates listed in the associated y-axis

3. Decide if the breakeven timeline (years) fits your objectives

WHEN TO REFI ✅
-----------------

Deciding if a refinance is worth it depends on two things:

1. The timeline you predict to be in the loan, before selling or refinancing again

2. The breakeven point for the rate you choose falls within that timeline

Selling or refinancing again before your breakeven point will result in a net loss on the loan, since there will be insufficient time to recover all upfront costs.

Higher rates sometimes offset ALL closing costs; this will result in a “0” timeline.

It is also best to stay under 3-years (zone of consideration) and no more than 5.

Current note rates lower than 6.50% are unlikely to breakeven within that timeframe.

Total loan costs, APR, and exact timelines will vary based on state, credit scores, and loan program chosen.

CUSTOM BREAKEVEN 🎯
-------------------------

Get an anonymous, customized breakeven analysis, instantly at LendZen.

Click the link below for an interactive rate quote and scroll down to the Benefit Summary section to see the breakeven analysis.

You can MODIFY any of the loan parameters from that screen or customize your own from the home page.

Use the “Save this Scenario” option to receive a private link and check rates for your exact criteria anytime with just one click.

LIVE RATE QUOTE WITH BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS

🧮👆

Subscribe now

YOUR TIMELINE ⏳
------------------

The “timeline” is not about the loan term (15-Year, 30-Year, etc.) and in many cases isn’t necessarily about how long you plan to be in the home.

When choosing a timeline, you need to also consider how long before you think mortgage rates will become less expensive and choose the shorter of the two timelines.

Timeline is the only subjective part of deciding which rate to choose, the rest is derived mathematically.

Multiple rates will reach breakeven within your timeline but choose the rate that provides the most net savings at the end of your selected timeline.

This is not always the lowest rate, because lower rates have more upfront costs that need to be recovered.

To instantly and anonymously find the rate with the most benefit for your exact loan criteria visit LendZen.com

RATE PRICING EXPLAINED 📖
------------------------------

Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.

However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall.

Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.

The lower the rate, the more you pay upfront for it - this is often referred to as points but is known in the industry more as a “discount fee”.

When mortgage bond prices rise the additional liquidity (money) makes the price of mortgage rates lower.

This “feel like” lower mortgage rates are suddenly available even though they always existed – they merely dropped in price enough to make it marketable to offer them to borrowers.

This rate-price dynamic also means the higher you go in rate, the lower the fee.

Some rates even pay a rebate, which is paid as a “lender credit” and typically increases the higher you go in rate.

Rebates and discount fees (points) change daily, based on the fluctuation in mortgage bond prices.

ZERO COST REFI 💰
-------------------

When you are offered a “No Points” loan, the rate quoted has enough rebate to offset the fees normally charged by that lender in Section A of the Loan Estimate disclosure.

This is VERY different than a “No Cost” loan, which means the rate chosen has enough rebate to eliminate ALL new costs of doing the loan.

Although the “no cost” rate will be higher, the monthly savings from a refinance are experienced immediately because there are no upfront costs to recover.

This type of approach usually provides the most benefit (net savings) for borrowers considering shorter timelines.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

TABLE OF CONTENTS ⬆️

• Market Recap

• Hot Topics

• Rate Snapshot

MARKET RECAP ⏪
------------------

Mortgage rates had their backs against the wall the last few weeks.

This week was going to be the ultimate test given the deluge of inflation data and a double dose of congressional testimony for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.

Unfortunately, on Monday the bond market decided to throw in the towel early…

Mortgage rate pricing jumped to levels not tested since 2025… and 259 basis points worse than the February 27 lows.

Tuesday’s inflation report could have been the nail in the coffin, but fortunately the July headline CPI report (June data) came in at 3.5% vs. 3.8% expectations.

Most notably was the month-to-month drop; the 0.4% decline was the largest since April 2020 when it fell 0.8%.

The net-result was a welcomed recovery for mortgage rate pricing, bringing the 72-hour bump to just 6 basis points, and the 5-day change modestly better at 4 bps.

Mortgage rates have taken a momentary step back from the cliff, but regardless the last couple months have been ugly.

The PRICE of a rate quoted on February 27 is now $2,361 more expensive per $100k of loan amount, or $12,960 on a $500,000 mortgage.

HOT TOPICS 🔥
--------------

Drop a comment with your thoughts on any of these topics (or share your own).

• Do the latest airstrikes lead to a longer-term peace deal or is all hope lost?

• Can mortgage rates fully recover the February lows?

• As a homebuyer / homeowner what worries you most about the housing market?

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

TABLE OF CONTENTS ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates are barely standing after the worst 10-day stretch since “Operation Epic Fury” first started and now sit just 23 basis points shy of the May 19 high.

Whether this week delivers the knockout punch depends on inflation and The Fed.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Sales are scattered throughout – while the Federal Budget Statement (JUN), import/export prices, and the Philly Fed Business Index each add an extra bit of insult to injury in the inflation category.

However, that’s not all…

We also have the home builder’s survey, housing starts/permits, and NAR pending home sales data.

Last, and certainly not least, new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has two consecutive days of Congressional Testimony.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

Float ​ ≤ ​ 50 ​ ≤ ​ Lock
------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 84 🔴
Mortgage rates have weakened significantly in recent sessions (now nearing May highs), with heavy inflation data (CPI/PPI), retail sales, and Warsh testimony creating high short-term risk of further upside pressure.

[ 30 Days ] — 72 🟠
There is still some time to regain some ground “if” inflation surprises lower than expected, or Warsh provides market-friendly testimony. But with CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, and Fed testimony all in the same week, the odds of a low-volatility recovery are poor.

[ 45 Days ] — 64 🟠
With uncertainty returning to the Middle East situation, and mortgage rate pricing about to test the highs of the post February sell-off, the 45-day window moves from neutral (yellow) into early warning territory (orange).

[ 60 Days ] — 52🟡
This longer runway allows enough time for bonds to recover, despite the latest negative trend. However, even this timeline could shift into a more urgent lock situation depending on how inflation data unfolds this week.

The Lock-O-Meter provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds (mortgage rates).

The higher the score, the more a borrower should lean towards locking.

For short closing windows a lock is generally recommended because the rate you choose is more important.

I discuss how to make a savvy rate choice using the “long game” approach in this  Substack post. 👇

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

TABLE OF CONTENTS ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Price Tracker

• 30-Year Rates

• 15-Year Rates

• VA 30-Year Rates

• MBS Explained

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

June was the definition of volatility.

Although bond prices never fully revisited the multi-month high of May 19, mortgage rates couldn’t find escape velocity either.

The end result was a lot of ups and downs, but no real progress.

Unfortunately, July is not starting out on a good note either, as the Iran peace deal has unraveled.

The horizontal bar charts cover the last 4 months (as indicated).

The rate price tables and MBS data cover the previous month only (May 29 – July 2).

PRICE TRACKER 🔭
------------------

Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.

However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.

The Mortgage Rate Price Tracker (MRPT) illustrates this dynamic by showing how the price of each rate changed within the time series.

Some higher rates pay a rebate; this is illustrated on the tracker with negative (-) points.

When the “total change” in the table is negative it means a reduction in the price of the rate.

The MRPT is a “rate and loan program” specific example of the LendZen Index, which monitors a much broader set of rates and mortgage bond coupons.

Both are effective for visualizing how the PRICE of mortgage rates has changed, while the LendZen Index is published daily at LendZen.Substack.com

CONVENTIONAL 30-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

CONVENTIONAL 15-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

VA 30-YEAR 📉
--------------

MBS EXPLAINED 📖
-------------------

How much a mortgage-backed security is priced below or above par (100-00) determines the “price” of the mortgage rates packaged into that MBS coupon.

For example, the higher an MBS is priced above par, the less expensive the rates will be that are sold into that security.
(ex. 102-00 > 101-00)

The Note rates of each mortgage sold into a specific MBS typically range between 0.250 – 0.625 above the coupon rate, depending on the loan type.
(ex. 6.250% – 6.625% rates ~ 6.00 MBS)

The spread between the mortgage Note rate and the coupon rate is retained as a servicing fee.
(ex. 0.250 – 0.625)

This is why a 6.00 note rate is not sold into a 6.00 coupon and is therefore priced based on lower coupons.
(ex. 6.00% rate ~ 5.50 MBS)

As a result, the shift between different coupons can disproportionality affect the PRICE of the lower Note rate despite the close proximity of the two rates.
(ex. X.00% rate vs X.25% rate)

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

TABLE OF CONTENTS ⬆️

• Market Recap

• Hot Topics

• Rate Snapshot

MARKET RECAP ⏪
------------------

Mortgage rates were testing their best levels in years when the market closed for the week on February 27th.

Just hours later strikes on Iran were launched and mortgage rates have been on the negative end of bond market volatility ever since.

Although the “Memorandum of Understanding” peace deal brought a moment of reprieve, the Middle East conflict has been a daily wild card and today was no exception.

The roller coaster for mortgage rates continues as the U.S. launched new airstrikes, resulting in a sharp bond sell-off.

The above rate price chart uses a spectrum of MBS data and various lender rate sheets to calculate an average change in PRICE for all mortgage rates.

For example, if you received a loan estimate on 5/19 (red dot), the price of that rate today is approximately 44 basis points lower or $440 less per 100k of loan amount.

Unfortunately, the chart also shows us that in the last 24 hours the price of rates jumped 32 bps (+$320).

This data is posted daily, across multiple time-series, at the LendZen Index Substack.

HOT TOPICS 🔥
--------------

Drop a comment with your thoughts on any of these topics (or share your own).

• Do the latest airstrikes lead to a longer-term peace deal or is all hope lost?

• Do mortgage rates overcome the latest reversal, or do we test the May 19 highs first?

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

• Market Recap

• Hot Topics

• Rate Snapshot

MARKET RECAP ⏪
------------------

Bond markets continue to navigate between geopolitics and the economy, but lack conviction on which way to go.

After a volatile two months, mortgage rates finished the last 40 trading days smack-in-the-middle between the high and low.

Resurfacing tensions in the Middle East had investors on their heels this week, reversing last week’s positive momentum; although the bond sell-off was somewhat tamed by conflicting employment data.

The Thursday morning Non-Farm Payroll jobs report missed expectations, with the survey results showing only 57k new jobs added versus a consensus forecast of 115k.

However, the unemployment rate dipped, but this was mostly caused by a slump in the labor force participation rate; the denominator used to calculate the unemployment figure.

Even if the number of employment persons drops, the final ratio can decline if the number of people considered to be “looking for work” declines faster.

This shows the ambiguous nature of government published data, especially surveys which are also referred to as “soft data”.

HOT TOPICS 🔥
--------------

Drop a comment on any of these topics (or share your own).

• Do you trust government data and their survey reports?

• What is the job market like in your area?

• Do you think mortgage rates will finish the month of July better or worse?

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

TABLE OF CONTENTS ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

• Hot Topics

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

This week is another short one, with markets closing early on Thursday for the 4th of July weekend.

Crammed into the 3.5 day week will be the home price indices and critical jobs data, headlined by the Non-Farm Payroll report Thursday morning.

The conflict in Iran is a rogue firework to watch out for after some flare-ups over the weekend that could threaten the delicate peace deal (MOU).

However, markets initially shrugged off the first round of tit-for-tat retaliations that started early on Friday.

This is hopefully a sign bond markets have shifted their focus back to the economic calendar.

If true, mortgage rates will be more vulnerable this week to housing data and the employment numbers than geopolitics.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 72 🟠
Mortgage rates have benefited from the Iran peace deal and recent bond gains, but a condensed holiday week with home prices and jobs data leaves short-term closings exposed to surprises that make locking that safer approach.

[ 30 Days ] — 62 🟠
The ceasefire has helped pricing improve to the best levels since May 11. Yet, this window still calls for caution with employment data and potential Middle East flare-ups that could quickly test the recent recovery.

[ 45 Days ] — 51 🟡
With more time on the calendar, there is room to absorb this week’s labor data. However, prepare accordingly for NFP based on hints earlier in the week from JOLTS and ADP. You don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of a jobs data surprise.

[ 60 Days ] — 38🟢
Two-month timelines are back in the green. If the Iran MOU remains intact then the market can continue to refocus on the macro picture, helping to rebuild the bond-friendly environment that existed before the March shock.

If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.

I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.

HOT TOPICS 🔥
--------------

Drop a comment on any of these topics (or share your own).

• What are your plans for the 4th of July weekend?

• What is the best fireworks show you ever experienced in person?

• What are your predictions for mortgage rates this week with the jobs data on deck?

• How long do you think shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will remain stable?

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788