• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates fought back last week, but it won’t be enough to put out the dumpster fire which has been burning in the bond market since July.

In addition to Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), Thursday brings a double dose of Fed manufacturing surveys, followed by PPI and Retail Sales data.

Each report could reignite the bond selloff, further scorching mortgage rates.

There is also a “fireside” chat with Kevin Warsh, giving the new Fed Chair a chance to save the day if the first half of the week goes up in flames.

However, let’s be honest … no hero can save us if inflation really brings the heat.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Price Tracker

• 30-Year Rates

• 15-Year Rates

• VA 30-Year Rates

• MBS Explained

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

Aside from a brief reprieve in April, following the signing of the “Memorandum of Understanding”, mortgage rate pricing has deteriorated almost continuously since the war in Iran began on February 27.

Any hope of a near-term reversal taking shape was violently crushed in September.

MBS are now within reach of the 2023 lows, which means mortgage rate pricing is back near multi-decade highs.

This month’s Price Tracker includes a quarterly comparison showing how dramatically pricing has changed over the last 12 months.

The horizontal bar charts show the exact price of each note rate at the end of the date listed.

The rate price tables and MBS data cover the previous reporting period only (AUG 28 – OCT 2).

PRICE TRACKER 🔭
------------------

Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.

However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.

The Mortgage Rate Price Tracker (MRPT) illustrates this dynamic by showing how the price of each rate changed within the time series.

Some higher rates pay a rebate; this is illustrated on the tracker with negative (-) points.

When the “total change” in the table is negative it means a reduction in the price of the rate.

The MRPT is a “rate and loan program” specific example of the LendZen Index, which monitors a much broader set of rates and mortgage bond coupons.

Both are effective for visualizing how the PRICE of mortgage rates has changed, while the LendZen Index is published daily at LendZen.Substack.com

CONVENTIONAL 30-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

CONVENTIONAL 15-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

VA 30-YEAR 📉
--------------

MBS EXPLAINED 📖
-------------------

How much a mortgage-backed security is priced below or above par (100-00) determines the “price” of the mortgage rates packaged into that MBS coupon.

For example, the higher an MBS is priced above par, the less expensive the rates will be that are sold into that security.
(ex. 102-00 > 101-00)

The Note rates of each mortgage sold into a specific MBS typically range between 0.250 – 0.625 above the coupon rate, depending on the loan type.
(ex. 6.250% – 6.625% rates ~ 6.00 MBS)

The spread between the mortgage Note rate and the coupon rate is retained as a servicing fee.
(ex. 0.250 – 0.625)

This is why a 6.00 note rate is not sold into a 6.00 coupon and is therefore priced based on lower coupons.
(ex. 6.00% rate ~ 5.50 MBS)

As a result, the shift between different coupons can disproportionality affect the PRICE of the lower Note rate despite the close proximity of the two rates.
(ex. X.00% rate vs X.25% rate)

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

The inflationary impulse revealed in last month’s manufacturing surveys decapitated hopes of a near-term mortgage rate recovery.

Those inflation fears left The Fed little choice but to raise the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%.

This week brings service-sector surveys and the FOMC minutes, offering a look into The Fed’s mindset during its September meeting.

Can cooler survey data and a more optimistic outlook from The Fed bring the runaway rate situation under control, or will another stab from inflation deliver the fatal blow?

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

This week’s data will either save or break the bond market.

Employment takes the lead, with JOLTS, ADP Payrolls, and Challenger layoffs building toward Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report and unemployment rate.

Unfortunately, jobs aren’t the only thing we need to worry about.

Wednesday brings the PCE inflation report, which the Fed monitors closely.

Retail inventories and manufacturing surveys also matter for a market hypersensitive to any sign that inflation is getting worse.

Mortgage rates already have their backs fully against the wall, so if this week’s data could get the memo … that would be great.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Markets see it as an almost foregone conclusion that the Fed will raise its target rate by 0.25% on Wednesday.

The Fed once again finds itself walking a tightrope between its mandate of price stability and the fiscal profligacy of our government.

That same government exacerbated matters last week with a poorly received bond buyback scheme that failed to stop mortgage rates from soaring to levels not seen since the 2023 breakout.

Unfortunately, the situation in the Middle East, and its impact on oil prices, cannot be fixed by a Central Bank tinkering with overnight rates by 25 basis points.

Nonetheless, the bond market (tail that wags the dog) has given The Fed permission to hike.

The question is, will this make things better, or unleash interest rate Armageddon?

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Market Brief

• Rate Impact

• Game Plan

• Rate Snapshot

MARKET BRIEF 📰
-----------------

Rising energy costs in today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) sparked a bond apocalypse yesterday, ahead of today’s key inflation report (CPI).

Bonds were already on their heels Wednesday after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced another $6 billion in long-term bond buybacks.

The program was intended to support the market, but the amount fell short of investor expectations and was interpreted as insufficient for the scale of the problem.

The double whammy of inflation and disappointment over government intervention sent bond prices plunging to levels not seen since the 2023 meltdown.

RATE IMPACT 💥
----------------

Mortgage rate pricing was 76-bps higher on the day.

This means the same rate quoted Thursday morning now costs $761 more per $100K of loan amount.

Just six months ago, mortgage rates were at their best level in years.

Since the Iran invasion began, a dangerous cocktail of higher oil prices, shipping costs, and tit-for-tat tariffs has pushed rate pricing to the worst level in years.

The 429-bps increase since Feb 27 means securing the same rate now costs another $21,450 on a $500K loan.

GAME PLAN 📋
--------------

When bond yields surge this quickly, the pressure spreads into other markets.

At these higher yields, the risks of owning stocks becomes less attractive relative the guaranteed income of owning government bonds.

In the short term, there is no arguing that yesterday’s bond sell-off is painful.

The question is whether it gets worse before it gets better.

The 30-year Treasury auction offered one reason not to abandon all hope.

Amid the hysteria, investors showed exceptionally strong demand for long-term government debt.

Primary dealers, the firms required to absorb whatever investors do not buy, were left with only 2.2% of the auction, the lowest share on record.

Also, Fed rate policy (hikes and cuts) usually follows the 2Y Note, which at this point all but guarantees a rate hike next week.

However, a higher Fed Funds Rate would not automatically make mortgage pricing worse. Markets have already priced in much of the expected move, and decisive action from the Fed could help calm inflation fears.

The question is, should you have locked ahead of today’s Consumer Price Index.

Locking probably feels like closing the barn doors after the horses have fled.

But it could still protect you if the barn burns to the ground today.

Personal timing is everything – not only for borrowers already under contract.

“You can always refinance later” remains a risky assumption.

But when bond prices become this stretched, a future refinancing opportunity becomes more plausible, even if it is never guaranteed.

The same logic matters when deciding whether to pay points.

Locking to hedge against today’s inflation data may be understandable; paying heavily for a lower rate is a separate decision.

The less money committed upfront, the more flexibility you retain if mortgage pricing eventually recovers.

Weeks like this require a cool head and a longer-term view.

The horses may eventually come home on their own – just make sure the doors remain open when they do.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Price Tracker

• 30-Year Rates

• 15-Year Rates

• VA 30-Year Rates

• MBS Explained

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

August felt like a championship fight with plenty of back-and-forth.

Fortunately, borrowers escaped with a narrow split-decision win but the grueling battle left the bond market in a weakened state.

That weakness has been noticeable early in September, with mortgage rate pricing already giving up meaningful ground and erasing the hard-fought progress made in August.

Before next week’s inflation data and the FOMC rate decision on SEP 16, let’s take a closer look at how mortgage rates performed in August.

PRICE TRACKER 🔭
------------------

Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.

However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.

The Mortgage Rate Price Tracker (MRPT) illustrates this dynamic by showing how the price of each rate changed within the time series.

Some higher rates pay a rebate; this is illustrated on the tracker with negative (-) points.

When the “total change” in the table is negative it means a reduction in the price of the rate.

The MRPT is a “rate and loan program” specific example of the LendZen Index, which monitors a much broader set of rates and mortgage bond coupons.

Both are effective for visualizing how the PRICE of mortgage rates has changed, while the LendZen Index is published daily at LendZen.Substack.com

CONVENTIONAL 30-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

CONVENTIONAL 15-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

VA 30-YEAR 📉
--------------

MBS EXPLAINED 📖
-------------------

How much a mortgage-backed security is priced below or above par (100-00) determines the “price” of the mortgage rates packaged into that MBS coupon.

For example, the higher an MBS is priced above par, the less expensive the rates will be that are sold into that security.
(ex. 102-00 > 101-00)

The Note rates of each mortgage sold into a specific MBS typically range between 0.250 – 0.625 above the coupon rate, depending on the loan type.
(ex. 6.250% – 6.625% rates ~ 6.00 MBS)

The spread between the mortgage Note rate and the coupon rate is retained as a servicing fee.
(ex. 0.250 – 0.625)

This is why a 6.00 note rate is not sold into a 6.00 coupon and is therefore priced based on lower coupons.
(ex. 6.00% rate ~ 5.50 MBS)

As a result, the shift between different coupons can disproportionality affect the PRICE of the lower Note rate despite the close proximity of the two rates.
(ex. X.00% rate vs X.25% rate)

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Market Brief

• Rate Impact

• Rate Snapshot

MARKET BRIEF 📰
-----------------

Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report (NFP) was the main act of a busy week for employment data.

The release showed 162K new jobs were added in August, more than tripling consensus expectations of 53K.

July’s previously reported 23K loss was also revised to a 21K gain.

The methods and reliability of survey data can result in contrary market reactions, especially with NFP.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% as both employment and the labor force grew.

Those details helped prevent the blowout headline from causing a much larger bond-market meltdown.

RATE IMPACT 💥
----------------

The net-result was a mild bond sell-off, but nothing as severe as the headline jobs number would normally suggest.

However, today’s reaction leaves mortgage rate pricing 23 basis points higher over the trailing 30 days, adding $228 per $100K of loan amount.

The rate hike debate now shifts towards next week’s CPI inflation data.

Following today’s jobs report, the probability of a 25-bps September rate hike increased from roughly 49% to 58%.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage-backed securities are once again flying dangerously close to the point of no return.

Since “Operation Epic Fury” began, mortgage rate pricing is now over 300-basis points higher.

That means the same rate quoted in February now costs $3,000 more per $100K of loan amount, or more than $15,000 on a $500K loan.

But it is the last two months of Fed hike fears and geopolitical turbulence that have really strained the bond market, leaving mortgage rates in a fragile position ahead of this week’s heavy haul of PMI surveys and employment data.

Can mortgage rates navigate the chaos and find a safe place to land, or is it time to assume the crash position?

One thing is for sure; this is the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

Float ​ ≤ ​ 50 ​ ≤ ​ Lock
------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 84 🔴
MBS are sitting near a technical breaking point after a sharp five-day sell-off. Friday’s NFP, plus renewed geopolitical tension leave short closings with little margin for error. Locking is highly encouraged.

[ 30 Days ] — 73 🟠
The 30-day horizon remains in high alert, with a stacked week of manufacturing, services, and employment. Meanwhile, persistent Fed rate-hike chatter combined with unyielding geopolitical risk continues to snuff out bond rallies.

[ 45 Days ] — 62 🟠
Still enough runway to let this week’s data settle, but compared to three weeks ago floating is harder to justify. Especially, now that the market is pricing “hike risk” instead of just hawkish rhetoric. This window should watch, not relax.

[ 60 Days ] — 51🟡
The longest window remains the most defensible place to float, but increased rate hike odds add a new layer of risk versus last week. This week is meaningful, but sitting this far out also means another full round of Big 3 events.

The Lock-O-Meter provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds (mortgage rates).

The higher the score, the more a borrower should lean towards locking.

For short closing windows a lock is generally recommended because the rate you choose is more important.

I discuss how to make a savvy rate choice using the “long game” approach in this  Substack post. 👇

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

Here is the latest housing market data with charts.

Explore housing inventory, home prices, and see which markets are performing the best.

Click here for a list of all 👉 Housing Market Snapshots

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

• Single-Family: $442,500

• Condominium: $365,000

MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET

• Single-Family: 63

• Condominium: 84

INVENTORY FOR SALE

• Single-Family: 874,784

• Condominium: 233,853

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

• Single-Family: $214

• Condominium: $270

NATIONAL ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index – JUN 30

• 1 Year: +1.53%

• 3 Year: +2.97%

• 5 Year: +5.21%

HIGHEST ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH

Intercontinental Exchange Index – JUN 31

• Rochester, NY: +8.1%

• Syracuse, NY: +7.1%

• Hartford, CT: +6.6%

LOWEST ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH

Intercontinental Exchange Index – MAY 31

• San Jose, CA: -0.9%

• Houston, TX: -0.9%

• Dallas, TX: -1.0%

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Bond markets started the week on the right foot with a calm Monday.

Mortgage rate pricing finished the day 14 bps better than Friday’s close.

Tuesday brings a double-team of housing data with both the FHFA and Case-Shiller home price indices.

But the real action starts Wednesday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, durable goods orders, and the second estimate of Q2 GDP.

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins Thursday, but Friday is the main event when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his keynote.

The same day, the Labor Department publishes a preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision to Non-Farm Payrolls.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

Float ​ ≤ ​ 50 ​ ≤ ​ Lock
------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 75 🟠
Monday’s calm start and modest improvement in mortgage pricing certainly help, but PCE, Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote, and the NFP revisions all land this week. Short closings remain exposed to all of the above and ever-present geopolitical surprises.

[ 30 Days ] — 66 🟠
The LendZen Index shows rate pricing is mostly unchanged across various time series (5D: +3 bps, 10D: -6 bps, and 30D: +8 bps), but in reality extreme volatility has made timing a lock an elusive endeavor. This week’s economic calendar is likely to add to that frustration, especially with Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair.

[ 45 Days ] — 55 🟡
More room exists to absorb this week’s data and Warsh’s Jackson Hole message. This makes floating reasonable, but stay vigilant especially as the next FOMC rate decision approaches.

[ 60 Days ] — 45🟡
Floating here is more defensible, but another round of “Big 3” events (NFP, CPI, FOMC) will pass before your closing date. Meanwhile, Hormuz flare ups might not rattle markets as much but could continue stifling the types of improvement that incentive floating.

The Lock-O-Meter provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds (mortgage rates).

The higher the score, the more a borrower should lean towards locking.

For short closing windows a lock is generally recommended because the rate you choose is more important.

I discuss how to make a savvy rate choice using the “long game” approach in this  Substack post. 👇

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Hopefully this is the week bond prices finally break free of the choppy sideways range that has kept mortgage rates prisoner for the last month.

Geopolitics aside, investors will be processing a deluge of manufacturing data throughout the week.

The housing market will also take the stage with reports covering homebuilder sentiment, building permits, housing starts, and pending home sales.

However, the headliner will be Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.

Although recent economic data has reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike next month, the minutes could still rattle bond markets – especially if the overall tone is more hawkish than anticipated.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Market Brief

• Rate Impact

• Rate Snapshot

MARKET BRIEF 📰
-----------------

Since February 27 the biggest pain for the bond market has been the Iran situation, pushing key mortgage-bond coupons 220 to 350 basis points lower.

Meanwhile, this week was filled with inflation-focused reports, including CPI and PPI.

Fortunately, the Consumer Price Index was in line with expectations and Producer Price Index had no surprises either.

RATE IMPACT 💥
----------------

Mortgage rates do not technically rise or fall. Instead, it is the price of rates that changes while the full menu of options remains constant.

Bond prices have an INVERSE relationship with the price of mortgage rates.

Economic data has been bond-friendly lately, keeping a lid on things. At least in the context of the dangerous levels tested just a few weeks ago.

This week’s inflation data helped mortgage rates improve again, but Friday gave back some of those gains despite no major headlines that warranted the reversal.

Ultimately, mortgage rate pricing still finished the week improved, but remains virtually unchanged over the last 30 trading days.

However, there is a lot more ground to recover.

The same rate quoted before the Middle East conflict began would now cost $2,594 more per $100K of loan amount (259 bps), or nearly $13,000 more on a $500K loan

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates finally came up for air on Friday after a weaker than expected jobs report sparked a strong bond rally.

Despite the positive trend unfolding, there is little time to catch our breath.

It is a jam-packed week led by the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, followed by retail sales on Friday.

Meanwhile, plenty of uncertainty remains around the latest peace talks involving Iran.

Although economic data has recently resuscitated bond prices, the Strait of Hormuz remains the choke point for mortgage rates.

Since the conflict began, the price of mortgage rates has risen 270 bps, or $2,701 per $100K of loan amount.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Price Tracker

• 30-Year Rates

• 15-Year Rates

• VA 30-Year Rates

• MBS Explained

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

July brought a painful resurgence of geopolitical uncertainty as bond markets reacted to the inflationary potential of ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Economic data was largely in line with expectations, perhaps helping put a lid on an otherwise ugly month for bond prices and mortgage rate pricing.

The end result was a swift dismissal of peace deal optimism and a return to precarious levels last tested in March, with the price of lower rates nearly doubling since then.

We have stood at this same precipice of despair several times in recent years and managed to recover each time.

The exception was 2023 – what followed then was a total bloodbath and the worst mortgage rates in more than two decades.

PRICE TRACKER 🔭
------------------

Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.

However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.

The Mortgage Rate Price Tracker (MRPT) illustrates this dynamic by showing how the price of each rate changed within the time series.

Some higher rates pay a rebate; this is illustrated on the tracker with negative (-) points.

When the “total change” in the table is negative it means a reduction in the price of the rate.

The MRPT is a “rate and loan program” specific example of the LendZen Index, which monitors a much broader set of rates and mortgage bond coupons.

Both are effective for visualizing how the PRICE of mortgage rates has changed, while the LendZen Index is published daily at LendZen.Substack.com

CONVENTIONAL 30-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

CONVENTIONAL 15-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

VA 30-YEAR 📉
--------------

MBS EXPLAINED 📖
-------------------

How much a mortgage-backed security is priced below or above par (100-00) determines the “price” of the mortgage rates packaged into that MBS coupon.

For example, the higher an MBS is priced above par, the less expensive the rates will be that are sold into that security.
(ex. 102-00 > 101-00)

The Note rates of each mortgage sold into a specific MBS typically range between 0.250 – 0.625 above the coupon rate, depending on the loan type.
(ex. 6.250% – 6.625% rates ~ 6.00 MBS)

The spread between the mortgage Note rate and the coupon rate is retained as a servicing fee.
(ex. 0.250 – 0.625)

This is why a 6.00 note rate is not sold into a 6.00 coupon and is therefore priced based on lower coupons.
(ex. 6.00% rate ~ 5.50 MBS)

As a result, the shift between different coupons can disproportionality affect the PRICE of the lower Note rate despite the close proximity of the two rates.
(ex. X.00% rate vs X.25% rate)

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates are facing a week of critical employment data after an ugly month of geopolitically fueled bond weakness.

But wait … is another U.S. / Iran peace deal on the table?

Trump suggested the two sides are again moving toward an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Skepticism will be heavy considering the last deal didn’t even survive a month.

Bond markets had little faith from the start – mortgage-backed securities began losing ground the day the deal was signed, and key coupons have since surrendered 169–222 bps in pricing.

If a deal is signed, investors can refocus on the employment reports, most notably Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the “official” unemployment rate.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• The Brief

• The Impact

• Rate Snapshot

THE BRIEF 📰
------------

Things were starting to look promising for mortgage rates last weekend after peace talks were expected to resume (again).

However, midweek doubts emerged and by Friday the price of key mortgage-bond coupons had fallen 169 to 222 basis points since the June peace deal was signed.

But renewed geopolitical weakness wasn’t the only blow.

The yen was sitting near a 40-year low when Japanese authorities intervened to boost its value, followed by coordinated support from the U.S. Treasury.

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THE IMPACT 💥
--------------

Mortgage rates do not technically rise or fall. Instead, it is the price of rates that changes while the full menu of options remains constant.

Bond prices have an INVERSE relationship with the price of mortgage rates.

The yen rescue effort likely required Japan to sell dollar-denominated reserves, adding further pressure to an already fragile U.S. bond market.

Mortgage bonds were less favored on the day, which is reflected in the wider MBS-Treasury spreads.

Mortgage bonds are now sitting in a very delicate position.

The current levels have been tested frequently going all the way back to 2023.

What followed back then was a total bloodbath and the worst mortgage rates in over two decades.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

back to top ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates are determined by the price of mortgage bonds (mortgage-backed securities), not by the Federal Reserve or its Federal Open Market Committee.

However, the FOMC rate decision does carry weight, even if only as a delayed reaction mechanism to how bond markets have already been pricing inflation.

With the U.S. 2-Year Note now 75-bps above the “effective” Fed Funds rate (3.63), it’s easy to see why there is discussion that a rate hike is on the table for this week’s meeting.

But what most don’t realize is FOMC rate decisions usually have an opposite impact of longer duration bond prices; as a result mortgage rates tend to improve on the news of a Fed rate hike and vice versa.

This is because inflation is the bigger concern for bond markets, and rate hikes are intended to slow down economic activity, vis-a-vis reducing inflationary pressure.

Although bond pricing is begging for a hike, the consensus is the FOMC will hold the Fed Funds unchanged.

Therefore, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Durable Goods, and the Employment Cost Index are all bigger wild cards this week given the inflation insights each data set reveals.

Do you think the FOMC should raise their overnight lending rate this week?

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

Float ​ ≤ ​ 50 ​ ≤ ​ Lock
------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 86 🔴
This is one of the highest-risk short-closing weeks on the calendar. Mortgage pricing is already under heavy pressure (up 149 bps in last 30-days per the LendZen Index) and now the market has to absorb Durable Goods, PCE, GDP, the FOMC decision, the Warsh press conference, and the Employment Cost Index! Short closings should lock unless in a high-stakes gambling mood.

[ 30 Days ] — 77 🟠
The mid-summer technical sell-off has left a deep mark with serious cumulative damage, which could take considerable time to recover even with a peaceful outcome in the Middle East.

[ 45 Days ] — 66 🟠
The 45-day window still has some time to recover but the setup is too damaged to stay neutral, as a result this timeline crosses back into orange alert territory.

[ 60 Days ] — 55🟡
While a 60-day horizon offers enough time to recalibrate after the FOMC and possible Iran peace deal 2.0, this window will also need to survive two full cycles of “Big 3” economic date before closing. Risk-tolerant borrowers can float cautiously, but be prepared to lock if things get worse.

The Lock-O-Meter provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds (mortgage rates).

The higher the score, the more a borrower should lean towards locking.

For short closing windows a lock is generally recommended because the rate you choose is more important.

I discuss how to make a savvy rate choice using the “long game” approach in this  Substack post. 👇

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

TABLE OF CONTENTS ⬆️

• The Brief

• The Impact

• Rate Snapshot

THE BRIEF 📰
------------

The key driver of mortgage rates in the U.S. is the bond market, specifically the price of mortgage bonds (mortgage-backed securities).

Bond markets in general have not been a fan of U.S. military operations in Iran, but there was some hope following the “Memorandum of Understanding” in June.

However, the unraveling of that peace deal in recent days has left its mark on mortgage rates.

Although last week managed to pinch off a small win, things have been getting messier by the day.

THE IMPACT 💥
--------------

Mortgage rates do not technically rise or fall, instead it is the price of rates that changes while the full menu of options remains constant.

Bond prices have an INVERSE impact on the price of mortgage rates.

The steady decline in bond prices this month means the price of ALL RATES has increased.

In just the last five trading sessions, mortgage rate pricing has given up 89 basis points.

If quoted today, the same rate from last week would now cost $888 more per $100K of loan amount.

That’s a staggering increase of $4,440 on a $500K loan in just a week.

Should homebuyers hope for a quick recovery in rates or is it better to stop the bleeding now with a lock?

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

TABLE OF CONTENTS ⬆️

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

• Rate Snapshot

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates are still showing signs of life after ending the week modestly better despite the escalating situation in Iran.

The small gains were aided in part by MBS-Treasury spreads holding firm.

Unfortunately, things continued to spiral over the weekend, with oil futures climbing back above $80.

This week looks quiet on the surface, but the Conference Board Leading Economic Index on Monday will set the tone early for the other business activity surveys later in the week.

Each has the potential to pull the plug on mortgage rates if survey data reveals a war driven inflationary impulse.

Do you think we have seen the highs yet this year for mortgage rates?

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

Float ​ ≤ ​ 50 ​ ≤ ​ Lock
------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 79 🟠
Mortgage rates remain pressured near recent highs amid renewed Iran/Hormuz tensions and oil climbing above $80. A lighter data week still carries inflation risk from business surveys that could reinforce upside pressure on short-term closings.

[ 30 Days ] — 68 🟠
Escalating Middle East risks and oil-driven inflation fears keep caution high despite reason for optimism following last week’s resilience. However, the technical bloodbath from earlier in July should not be so quickly forgotten, with the 30-day LendZen index sitting at a 64-bps deficit over the past month.

[ 45 Days ] — 58 🟡
The 45-day timeline moves back into yellow. The absence of a Big 3 event (CPI, NFP, FOMC) provides some breathing room but floating is not necessarily safe, it is simply more defensible than it was last week.

[ 60 Days ] — 48🟡
The longer runway offers some recovery potential if war tensions ease (again) but the potential is just as high for the opposite result. Meanwhile, the double cycle of Big 3 data in this window will very likely leave its mark on risk scores two months from now.

The Lock-O-Meter provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds (mortgage rates).

The higher the score, the more a borrower should lean towards locking.

For short closing windows a lock is generally recommended because the rate you choose is more important.

I discuss how to make a savvy rate choice using the “long game” approach in this  Substack post. 👇

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

TABLE OF CONTENTS ⬆️