WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates, in response to the Iran ceasefire, have clawed back more than half of the March losses since the new month began.

This week’s housing data (Existing home sales and Homebuilder sentiment) sets the tone as manufacturing data (PPI, NY/Philly Fed) will give the crowded Fed speaker schedule something to talk about ahead of the next FOMC rate decision on April 29.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 75 🟠
The ceasefire in Iran has helped mortgage rates claw back roughly half of the March losses, but the week is packed with housing data, manufacturing surveys, and multiple Fed speakers that could reintroduce.

[ 30 Days ] — 61 🟠
Bond-friendly momentum from the ceasefire has been modest so far; upcoming housing and manufacturing reports will test whether the recent recovery can hold or if inflation concerns return.

[ 45 Days ] — 50 🟡
With more time on the calendar, markets have room to absorb this week’s data without panic, but any hawkish Fed comments or hotter-than-expected numbers could stall the improvement in mortgage pricing.

[ 60 Days ] — 45 🟢
The longer-term picture remains constructive as the ceasefire reduces immediate energy-price risks, giving bonds breathing room. However, the April FOMC and upcoming inflation data will be the real test of whether this recovery has legs.

If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.

I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

After last night’s Iran ceasefire announcement oil prices fell 18% helping to spark a strong bond rally in overnight trading.

Despite the encouraging news, bond prices reversed during Wednesday trading hours.

Because of a strong opening bid for MBS, mortgage rates ended better than yesterday despite the midday sell-off.

Meanwhile, the Fed Minutes put further emphasis on this week’s inflation data, which kicks off with tomorrow’s PCE and is followed by Friday’s CPI.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, so tomorrow could be another volatile day for bond markets.

Hopefully, the ceasefire holds and inflation remains subdued, so the gradual recovery in mortgage rates can continue.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

Bond markets have shown surprising resilience, despite oil prices surging 20% in the last 5 days.

Optimism that the war in Iran was potentially reaching a crescendo helped mortgage rates reclaim their footing at the start of the week.

However, Trump’s speech last night sent oil to within a few dollars of a decade high, suggesting the party would be coming to an end.

Despite the jump in oil prices, bonds held their ground again today notching the fourth straight day of gains.

Unlike the previous 4 weeks, mortgage-backed securities were the better performer, helping to tighten MBS-Treasury spreads each day.

Big rallies start with small victories, and the current winning streak has mortgage rates feeling like they’re back

Although the latest improvements only reclaimed 62 basis points of the 161 bps in PRICE lost the previous month, it is still worth celebrating.

Perhaps the March bond sell-off went too far and investors are simply rebalancing ... or they are preparing for a potential economic slowdown.

Price shocks, especially those driven by energy prices, can have a suffocating effect on the consumer.

Two-thirds of U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending, which puts the next two-quarters in the recession crosshairs.

Tomorrow’s NFP employment report will hopefully pour fuel on the fire by reinforcing the growing recession narrative.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

Included in this post are the following:

• The Tracker

• Week 4 (Mar)

• Rate Recap

THE TRACKER 🔭
----------------

Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.

However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.

The Mortgage Rate Price Tracker (MRPT) illustrates this dynamic by showing how the price of each rate changed within the time series.

The higher the rate, the lower the fee (points). Some higher rates pay a rebate; this is illustrated on the tracker with negative (-) points.

When the “total change” is negative it means a reduction in the price of the rate.

The MRPT is a “rate and loan program” specific example of the LendZen Index, which monitors a much broader set of rates and mortgage bond coupons.

Both are effective for visualizing how the PRICE of mortgage rates has changed, while the LendZen Index is published daily at LendZen.substack.com

WEEK 4 📉
---------

Since the LendZen Index has a variety of time series, the MRPT will focus on just the current month’s activity.

Attached are the results for March Week 4.

You can also explore the results from prior weeks by searching the Price Tracker tag.

OBSERVATION:

There is A NEW HOPE for mortgage rates as we hopefully put the March sell-off behind us.

However, the damage has been done to mortgage rate prices, in what will likely take months to correct.

Anyone who didn’t lock in February, and waited for a bounce back in March, is now likely seeing the same rate options priced at least 200 – 300 higher.

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

Hopes were high for the spring homebuying season after mortgage rates finished February at the best levels in years.

Fast forward to the end of March and mortgage rates not only lost considerable ground, but retraced the entire rally which started after August’s Non-Farm Payroll kicked started a jobs market recession narrative that carried into the new year.

The bond market bloodbath was unfortunately felt more acutely in mortgage bonds, as the spread between MBS yields and the 10-Year Treasury went from a low of 73-basis points (0.73%) in January to as high as 114 bps.

Widening spreads combined with an inflation-driven bond sell-off resulted in skyrocketing mortgage rate PRICES.

Lower MBS coupons are always impacted the most, as the lower bond yield means greater losses from inflation.

The result was lower Note rates (i.e., 5.25%) increased as much as 344 basis points.

This means securing the same rate today vs. February 27 could cost you $3,437 more per $100k of loan amount.

So far this week a combination of optimism out of the Middle East and mild economic data has helped mortgage bonds claw back last week’s losses with a two-day rally.

Meanwhile, let’s hope the Friday jobs report (NFP) can strengthen the reversal with a bond rally reminiscent of last summer.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

See for yourself and experience hassle-free mortgage shopping at LendZen.com

DISCLOSURES

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

What is there to be said that hasn’t already been said in the last three weeks?

The oil price shock and inflationary impact of the surprise military operation in Iran have left mortgage rates on life support.

Since revisiting multi-year lows on February 27th, the price of mortgage rates has skyrocketed higher an average of 223 basis points.

This means the same rate will now cost you $2,229 more per $100k of loan amount, or a whopping $11,145 on a $500k loan.

Although the punishment has been felt across the entire bond market, mortgage bonds (MBS) have sold off more aggressively than government bonds.

MBS-Treasury spreads are now 23-bps wider than before the conflict began.

This has pushed the pain threshold to the max for mortgage rates, especially those tied to lower end MBS coupons (i.e., 4.5, 5.0).

Unfortunately, the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate and the economic data this week has potential of being the final blow for mortgage rates in what has been an endless beatdown since March began.

Already one of the biggest market movers, the Non-Farm Payroll employment report could put the nail in the coffin for the Spring homebuyer season before it even begins.

Also on tap is the Case-Shiller home price data, and a variety of labor market related reports including job openings (JOLTS) and Challenger layoffs.

Does Good Friday help mortgage rates rise from the dead with a Hail Mary ceasefire... or will the econ data deliver another kick in the groin for bonds?

Let us pray…

Stay tuned for the Lock-O-Meter rate lock guide tomorrow as part of the Mortgage Rate Price Tracker.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

Included in this update are the following sections:

• Midweek Recap

• Impact Calendar

• Rate Price Index

• Mortgage Spreads

• Rate Lock Guide

MIDWEEK RECAP ⏪
-------------------

Iran has rejected the current ceasefire proposal, while listing their own 5 conditions for ending the war.

1. A complete halt to “aggression and assassinations” by the enemy.

2. The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic.

3. Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations.

4. The conclusion of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region

5. International recognition and guarantees regarding Iran’s sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz

This positive shift in discourse has at least stopped the bleeding … for now.

However, absent a permanent de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, bonds are going to remain skittish.

Meanwhile, oil prices are still hovering around $90 per barrel.

IMPACT CALENDAR 📅
-----------------------

The slight improvement today in MBS is hardly worth celebrating in the context of how much bonds tanked the last 3 weeks, and economic data can only hurt at this point.

Yesterday’s ugly 2-Year Treasury auction shows how difficult it is to price risk even in the short term.

Fortunately, there are no major data releases the rest of the week, but it doesn’t mean Friday’s consumer sentiment can’t rip off the scab.

RATE PRICE INDEX 📉
----------------------

Mortgage rates do not rise or fall, instead the PRICE of rates change.

The LendZen Index calculates a daily change in the price of mortgage rates by tracking a spectrum of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
-----------

• Mar 24:  +32 bps ($320 per $100K)

• 5-Day:  +89 bps ($894)

• 10-Day:  +122 bps ($1218)

• 30-Day:  +182 bps ($1819)

• 120-Day: +88 bps ($880)

Learn more about the LendZen Index and explore the full data series at LendZen.substack.com

Mortgage rate prices are nearly 200-bps higher on average since the February 27 lows, and well above the highs that held in place all the way back to October.

MORTGAGE SPREADS 🧈
-------------------------

Published daily with the LendZen Index is the LendZen Mortgage-Treasury Spread.

The LMTS uses actual bond yields to create a historically consistent, and reliable, data set.
-----------

• Mar 17:  1.00

• Mar 24:  1.11

• 24h:  +5 bps

• 5d:  +11 bps

• 12m Avg:  1.13

• YoY:  -18 bps

Learn more about the importance of accurate mortgage spreads on this Substack post.

The spread between MBS yields and the 10-Treasury Note recently crossed 100-bps for the first time since 2025.

This illustrates how the bond sell-off impacted mortgage rates more than what Treasury bonds alone would suggest.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 93 🔴
Rapid deterioration in mortgage bond prices from ongoing geopolitical escalation and oil shock keeps short-term risk extremely elevated; light calendar offers little relief.

[ 30 Days ] — 73 🟠
Inflation fears from energy prices and Middle East conflict dominate, with no major data to offset the sell-off; lock bias remains strong in this window.

[ 45 Days ] — 61 🟡
Geopolitical uncertainty and recent price reversal add caution, but longer horizon allows time for stabilization if Middle East tensions ease.

[ 60 Days ] — 45 🟡
Broader bond-friendly macro trend is under pressure from energy-driven inflation psychology; uncertainty is clearly elevated, but the longer view still offers float potential if oil trade stabilizes.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen (NMLS 375788) provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

See for yourself and experience hassle-free mortgage shopping at LendZen.com

March madness is no longer just a basketball tournament; it is also the state of the U.S. bond market as prices have been crashing since “Operation Epic Fury” first began in Iran.

Mortgage rates do not rise or fall. Instead, the price of rates changes based on the trading of mortgage-backed securities.

These individual mortgage bonds (MBS) “march” to their own drum, but take cues from the broader bond market, specifically longer duration U.S. Treasury Notes (7 – 10 year).

Unfortunately, today the inflation outlook outside of the U.S. sparked a face melter of a bond crash after the dam first broke in Gilts (UK bonds).

As a result of the selling pressure across global bond markets, the lower MBS coupons (i.e. 4.5) were down 100 bps in price at one point today (32 ticks).

If you were considering a 30-Year Fixed conventional mortgage between 4.75% - 5.75%, it has jumped in price anywhere between 200 – 300 bps since the month started.

That means a February 27 rate quote on a $500k loan is now upwards of $15,000 more expensive.

There is very little saving grace when bonds are on the run like this.

However, if we are going to find any optimism it is in yield curves.

A bear flattener has been underway, which implies the market now thinks a Fed rate hike is on the horizon.

Bear flatteners followed by rate hikes often precede recessions.

Recessions often lead to higher bond prices, and lower mortgage rate prices ...hopefully.

There is not much to be said that hasn’t already been highlighted the last three weeks and further emphasized by the images above.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

The Federal Reserve concluded their two-day FOMC meeting with a decision to keep their overnight lending rate unchanged.

Their benchmark Fed Funds rate remains at 3.50 – 3.75%.

This was expected as inflation data hasn’t warranted any shift in Fed policy, meanwhile the long-term impact of tariffs and oil price shocks are still unknown.

During the post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked:

“How high would oil prices have to go for the committee to vote to raise rates?”

However, Powell avoided a direct answer stating:

“We’re prepared to do what needs to be done, but I wouldn’t want to hypothesize about what that might be.”

Despite the uncertain outlook, The Fed expects the unemployment rate to stay at its current level of 4.4% as tighter immigration policies keep a lid on labor force participation.

The U.S. Central Bank also implied inflation will drop considerably by the end of the year; a projection that was not corroborated by the PPI data today (0.7% vs 0.3% expectations).

Based on the dot plot the committee is also projecting at least one more rate cut in 2026.

Financial markets were leaning more towards two cuts, but after today that has probably adjusted to be more in-line with the Fed.

Not discussed today but certainly important to mortgage rates, is the Fed’s shift in balance sheet concentration from longer duration notes/bonds to shorter T-Bills.

The Fed is already no longer reinvesting in MBS; this shift in how they reinvestment in Treasuries could add additional pressure to mortgage bond liquidity.

Although the spread between mortgage bonds and the 10-Year has widened by 10-bps since the operation in Iran began, it is still 30 bps lower than the same time last year.

Tomorrow’s 10-Year Note auction will be our first glimpse of how shook bond markets are feeling after today’s FOMC press conference.

Meanwhile, Powell is speaking at a conference on Saturday, which will give him a chance to rephrase some of today’s wording that roiled markets.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

Included in this post are the following:

• The Tracker

• Week 2 (Mar)

• Rate Recap

THE TRACKER 🔭
----------------

Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.

However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.

The Mortgage Rate Price Tracker (MRPT) illustrates this dynamic by showing how the price of each rate changed within the time series.

The higher the rate, the lower the fee (points). Some higher rates pay a rebate; this is illustrated on the tracker with negative (-) points.

When the “total change” is negative it means a reduction in the price of the rate.

The MRPT is a “rate and loan program” specific example of the LendZen Index, which monitors a much broader set of rates and mortgage bond coupons.

Both are effective for visualizing how the PRICE of mortgage rates has changed, while the LendZen Index is published daily at LendZen.substack.com

WEEK 2 📉
---------

Since the LendZen Index has a variety of time series, the MRPT will focus on just the current month’s activity.

Attached are the results for March Week 2.

You can also explore the results for weeks prior on this previous Substack post.

OBSERVATION:

The speed and ferocity of the current MBS sell-off has caught most off guard. Locking now feels a bit like closing the barn door after the horses are gone, but the economic calendar this week is unlikely to do anything to counter the oil price inflation that’s driving the bond sell-off.

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

Total carnage in MBS the last two weeks, with some MBS coupons falling in price by more than 200-bps.

The bond sell-off pushed the price of mortgage rates up 210+ bps for the lower end note rates.

This means an increase of $2,100 per $100k of loan amount, or $10,500 on a $500k loan … ouch!

Not all is lost; there are still low 6% rates available at “no cost” – where all transaction related fees are paid with lender rebate.

This week’s economic calendar also has pain written all over it.

Read more in yesterday’s Week Ahead Substack post.

Meanwhile, oil futures continued to climb over the weekend, temporarily crossing $100 per barrel, and flirting with it again in the early morning trading hours.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

See for yourself and experience hassle-free mortgage shopping at LendZen.com

DISCLOSURES

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

The last two weeks have been devastating for mortgage rates, with some MBS coupons falling in price by more than 200-bps.

The mortgage bond sell-off pushed the price of mortgage rates up 125 bps since the February 27 multi-year low.

This is just 8-bps short of a 6-month high (September 25).

Unfortunately, there was no resolution in the Middle East this weekend and no reprieve from the economic calendar in the week ahead.

Headlining this week’s schedule is the Fed rate decision, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.

Given the way Powell has been treated by the current administration I wouldn’t expect much sympathy from him, especially when oil price shocks have been sending bond yields higher across the curve.

Had the Fed cut more aggressively prior the knee jerk from bonds might have been worse.

It would have also left the central bank with less ammunition if the post-war economy slides into recession, requiring a boost from aggressive Fed policy (large rate cuts).

In addition to Wednesday’s FOMC update, we also have two oil related reports, Manufacturing data (including PPI), and two longer-duration Treasury auctions (10 year and 20 year).

Absent any positive outcomes in Iran the best we can hope for, given the schedule this week, is a cauterizing of the wound but it is more likely that bonds continue to bleed.

Stay tuned for the Lock-O-Meter rate lock guide tomorrow as part of the Mortgage Rate Price Tracker.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

Mortgage rates do not rise or fall, instead the price of each rate changes uniquely based on individual mortgage-backed securities.

Although slightly different in structure than a typical bond, MBS are often referred to as mortgage bonds.

Bond prices react negatively to inflation.

War is inflationary.

Oil supply disruptions are inflationary.

A war that causes oil supply disruptions is a lethal combination for bond markets.

When the price of “mortgage bonds” decrease, the PRICE of mortgage rates increase.

This has been the outcome for the last two weeks, with MBS some coupons down over 200 bps.

On Friday, February 27th the price of MBS peaked at levels only touched a few times since 2022.

It has been a disaster ever since, sending mortgage rates to their highest levels of 2026 and as far back as September 2025.

The sell-off in MBS has been more dramatic than the reaction in government bonds.

This means mortgage rates have experienced a lot more pain in the last two weeks than Treasuries.

This is illustrated clearly in the spread between MBS yields and the 10-Year Treasury which ripped wider by 10-bps on Thursday, breaching 100-bps for the first time since December 17.

Until things calm down in the Middle East the economic calendar is unlikely to help, and today’s PCE inflation report could be the nail in coffin if the data comes in hotter than expected.

At the end of each week, I post the Mortgage Rate Price Tracker which follows specific rates throughout the month to illustrate how the price of each has changed.

Stay tuned for the Week 2 update, which will be a contrasting report given the sharp move higher since the month began.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

In case you missed it the multi-year lows for mortgage rates evaporated last week as oil prices skyrocketed above $90, bond prices tanked, and mortgage rates gave up an average 54-bps in price.

That’s an increase of $540 per $100k of loan amount or $2,700 on a $500k loan.

Tomorrow’s Rate Price Tracker will show just how much each rate changed, so stay tuned for the detailed breakdown.

Fortunately, we are still within a downtrend (-64 bps) but have retraced back to where we were 90-days ago.

The operation in Iran is ongoing and escalating.

Without getting into the weeds on the mission’s objective, bottom line is market volatility just returned with a vengeance, especially for bonds.

War is inflationary, especially one that has the potential of long-term disruptions for oil supply chains.

However, that’s just where the nightmare begins…

The upcoming week is also “inflation data week” and finishes on Friday the 13th – the 2nd in two months.

The week includes both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), sandwiched between two inflation sentiment surveys.

We also get durable goods, three big Treasury auctions (3yr, 10yr, 30yr), JOLTS Job Openings, and a GDP update.

Not to mention existing home sales and housing starts.

The only thing certain about this week is it won’t be for the faint of heart.

Stay tuned for the Lock-O-Meter rate lock guide tomorrow as part of the Mortgage Rate Price Tracker.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

The best time to start an inflationary war is never.

The 2nd best time is when economic data offsets the inflationary impulse.

Operation Epic Fury in Iran was months in the making, but the timing of its launch presents a lot of questions.

The Non-Farm Employment report that was released on Friday was one of the worst since the pandemic (-$92K vs +55k expectations) with the unemployment rate increasing (4.4%; +0.1) for the first time since August 2025.

There was also a massive downward revision to the native-born worker component (-2.5M).

This type of ugly report would have normally kicked off a mega bond rally, just like the one in August that ushered in the ongoing bond bull market.

However, today’s NFP merely served to contain what would have been catastrophic damage from the inflationary impact of oil surging 40% this week to over $90 a barrel.

Behind the scenes the “soft data” survey of the NFP was most likely already painting a gloomy picture last Friday when the surprise military operation kicked off.

Did the forthcoming employment report nudge the Trump administration into action? Maybe.

Speculation and conspiracy theories aside, one deflationary data set isn’t going to keep bond yields contained if the conflict is prolonged and oil prices go parabolic.

For now, mortgage rates managed to hold their ground today after a rough week.

How long can bond markets put up a fight remains to be seen.

At the end of each week I post the Mortgage Rate Price Tracker which follows specific rates throughout the month to illustrate how the price of each has changed.

Stay tuned tomorrow for the latest update based on the start of the month – it will be a contrasting report given the sharp move higher since last Friday.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

Included in this update are the following sections:

• Midweek Recap

• Impact Calendar

• Rate Price Index

• Mortgage Spreads

• Rate Lock Guide

MIDWEEK RECAP ⏪
-------------------

After “Freddie Mac Friday” stirred up a palpable euphoria, promoters of so-called “lowest rates since 2022” have been left with a Shaq sized foot in the mouth after the weekend military operation on Iran stunned the world and bond markets.

As I shared over the weekend, the Freddie Mac data is about as accurate a gauge of mortgage rates as a wet finger in the air is for determining the weather.

Regular readers of the Weekly Kut know how quickly the PRICE of mortgage rates can change, and for anyone not yet initiated the first two days of the week were baptism by fire.

After nearly two weeks of hovering near multi-year lows without a ripple of volatility, the price of mortgage rates has jumped 30-bps since the Friday close (see Rate Price Index section).

Manufacturing data earlier in the week added to inflation concerns, which further stoked the bond sell-off.

However, despite a similar “hot” reading today in service sector surveys (PMI), bonds shrugged it off in what could be a shift of focus back to Friday’s critical NFP employment report.

Oil prices are also being monitored closely.

Having already risen 12% from the December lows, the unfolding events in the middle east skyrocketed the price by another dozen percent in just a few days.

Another reason bonds are quiet today is oil prices seem to be stabilizing at technical levels near $75 a barrel.

IMPACT CALENDAR 📅
-----------------------

The price of oil will continue to be a key factor in how markets are pricing inflation risks, as control of the Hormuz Canal is critical to keeping crude supply stable.

Meanwhile, markets seem to be shifting their focus towards Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll employment report.

Since the 2025 August NFP first sparked the ongoing bond bull market, mortgage rate observers watch optimistically each month for another sign that the economy is faltering.

However, if today’s slightly hotter than expected ADP payroll data is more signal than noise, we should curb our enthusiasm for Friday.

RATE PRICE INDEX 📉
----------------------

Mortgage rates do not rise or fall, instead the PRICE of rates change.

The LendZen Index calculates a daily change in the price of mortgage rates by tracking a spectrum of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
-----------

• 24-Hour: +2 bps ($20 per $100K)

• 5-Day:  -5 bps (-$45)

• 10-Day:  -30 bps (-$294)

• 30-Day: -40 bps (-$395)

Learn more about the LendZen Index and explore the full data series at LendZen.substack.com

MORTGAGE SPREADS 🧈
-------------------------

Published daily with the LendZen Index is the LendZen Mortgage-Treasury Spread.

The LMTS uses actual bond yields to create a historically consistent, and reliable, data set.
-----------

• Feb 25:  0.84

• Mar 4:  0.88

• 24h:  -5 bps

• 5d:  +4 bps

• 12m Avg:  1.14

• YoY:  -39 bps

Learn more about the importance of accurate mortgage spreads on this Substack post.

The spread between MBS yields and the 10-Treasury Note has been widening but bounced back today below 90-bps.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 85 🔴
The sudden 30+ bps price reversal combined with geopolitical uncertainty and Friday’s NFP employment report creates elevated near-term risks. Locking protects against further headline-driven bond weakness.

[ 30 Days ] — 64 🟠
Oil-driven inflation fears and the rapid repricing in bonds are creating a more lock focused environment. The next few weeks will be shaped by the “Big 3” and ongoing inflation risks.

[ 45 Days ] — 55 🟡
While recent volatility is worthy of floating anxiety, markets have time to absorb the recent geopolitical shocks and recalibrate around econ data – that is, as long as “Operation Epic Fury” isn’t an epic failure.

[ 60 Days ] — 38 🟢
The longer-term bond-friendly macro trend remains intact with the 30-day rate price trend back to unchanged, but geopolitical energy shocks introduce enough uncertainty to push risk slightly higher than last week’s lock scores.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen (NMLS 375788) provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

See for yourself and experience hassle-free mortgage shopping at LendZen.com

Included in this post are the following:

• The Tracker

• Week 4 (Feb)

• Rate Recap

THE TRACKER 🔭
----------------

Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.

However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.

The Mortgage Rate Price Tracker (MRPT) illustrates this dynamic by showing how the price of each rate changed within the time series.

The higher the rate, the lower the fee (points). Some higher rates pay a rebate; this is illustrated on the tracker with negative (-) points.

When the “total change” is negative it means a reduction in the price of the rate.

The MRPT is a “rate and loan program” specific example of the LendZen Index, which monitors a much broader set of rates and mortgage bond coupons.

Both are effective for visualizing how the PRICE of mortgage rates has changed, while the LendZen Index is published daily at LendZen.substack.com

WEEK 4 📉
---------

Since the LendZen Index has a variety of time series, the MRPT will focus on just the current month’s activity.

Attached are the results for February Week 4.

The rates in the VA 30 tracker now include 4.75%.

You can also explore the results for Week 3 on this previous Substack post.

OBSERVATION:

Big moves for mortgage rate prices for the short month of February, with both Conventional and VA Loans showing improvement of over 100-bps in price.

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

Last week there were no surprises from manufacturing data, including the Producer Price Index which gave us a mixed inflation outlook.

Tuesday’s Shiller Home Price Index also satisfied expectations, reporting a 1.27% annual increase for December; the Shiller Index reports on a two-month lag.

After an uneventful week, the stage was open for a more captivating act and mortgage rates decided to steal the show.

On Friday Freddie Mac published their weekly “Primary Mortgage Market Survey”.

Not usually a headline grabber, but the 5.98% print is the first time their 30-Year Fixed rate average came in below six percent since 2022.

The Wall St. Journal thought it was frontpage worthy, and that’s all it took for every real estate agent in the country to repost it. 🙄

But here is the punchline… the PMMS isn’t a survey anymore.

Instead, they only use initial application data when a file is first submitted through their underwriting system; it’s not even final loan data.

Plus, no collection of any points or fee data, which is the only thing that actually matters.

Freddie Mac is just averaging a bunch of random rates at the initial submission, without any context as to what the borrower is paying for that rate.

They don’t hide this either and tell you upfront their data is unreliable, but no one bothers to look … I did.

Regardless of how mortgage rates grabbed the spotlight, the attention is welcomed.

Especially considering the month we just had, with rates in the lower tiers improving over 100 basis points in price.

Meanwhile, the broader set of rates used in the LendZen Index show over 340 basis points of price improvement in the last 180 trading days.

Insight into this week’s events, including the latest Rate Impact Calendar, will be posted later today in the Week Ahead.

With the attack on Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, entering its third day the outlook for the week will be framed more by how markets respond then the already scheduled data.

Meanwhile, check out this popular post explaining how to find the best deal when shopping for a mortgage.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

See for yourself and experience hassle-free mortgage shopping at LendZen.com

DISCLOSURES

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

Included in this update are the following sections:

• Midweek Recap

• Impact Calendar

• Rate Price Index

• Mortgage Spreads

• Rate Lock Guide

MIDWEEK RECAP ⏪
-------------------

The data doldrums which defined the previous short week continue to drag on past the midweek hump and into the final days of February.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates quietly sit near their multi-year best (see Rate Price Index section).

This week’s manufacturing data has been uneventful and overshadowed by earnings (NVIDIA) and Trump’s State of the Union.

Tuesday’s Shiller home price index came in on the nose, with national home prices increasing 1.27% year-over-year.

IMPACT CALENDAR 📅
-----------------------

We have PPI on Friday, a more forward-looking inflation metric, but it is unlikely to be what jolts the bond market out of its slumber.

It feels like volatility won’t thaw off until next Friday when the Non-Farm Payroll employment report arrives.

Otherwise, we are still two weeks out from CPI inflation (Mar 11), and the next Fed FOMC rate decision is three weeks away.

RATE PRICE INDEX 📉
----------------------

Mortgage rates do not rise or fall, instead the PRICE of rates change.

The LendZen Index calculates a daily change in the price of mortgage rates by tracking a spectrum of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
-----------

• 24-Hour:  +2 bps ($20 per $100K)

• 5-Day:  -5 bps (-$45)

• 10-Day:  -30 bps (-$294)

• 30-Day:  40 bps (-$395)

Learn more about the LendZen Index and explore the full data series at LendZen.substack.com

MORTGAGE SPREADS 🧈
-------------------------

Published daily with the LendZen Index is the LendZen Mortgage-Treasury Spread.

The LMTS uses actual bond yields to create a historically consistent, and reliable, data set.
-----------

• Feb 18:  0.83

• Feb 25:  0.84

• 24h:  +1 bps

• 5d:  +1 bps

• 12m Avg:  1.15

• YoY:  -41 bps 

Learn more about the importance of accurate mortgage spreads on this Substack post.

The spread between MBS yields and the 10-Treasury Note continues to hover at multi-year lows.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 81 🔴
Quiet markets absent volatility shave a touch of urgency, but rates sitting at multi-year best levels still argue for protecting current pricing within short timelines.

[ 30 Days ] — 59 🟡
The absence of near-term catalysts reduces risk modestly, though inflation and jobs data ahead keep this window in caution territory.

[ 45 Days ] — 52 🟡
Strong recent rate price gains and limited calendar risk support patience, with flexibility to reassess as the March “Big 3” data approaches.

[ 60 Days ] — 35 🟢
Nothing has changed the longer-term outlook; macro conditions remain bond-friendly and floating continues to make sense.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

This week’s main focus will be home price data, specifically the Case-Shiller index.

Although reported with a two-month lag, the Shiller index is one of the longest running and most widely monitored home price metrics.

The U.S. home price story is a mixed bag, with markets below the sun belt seeing modest price declines last year while the northern states have been more resilient.

Since 2020 national home prices have increased at an annualized rate of 7.1%.

Current expectations are that the December data (Feb report) will show modest gains (+1.5%), similar to those from November (+1.4%).

Despite the disappointing Pending Home Sales data from last week, the 300-bps of mortgage rate PRICE improvement since last summer has likely provided timely support to home prices as inventory still remains low.

Shiller’s month-over-month numbers will be more heavily scrutinized by the housing bears, who have been trying to forecast a housing crash since 2020.

Regardless this is not going to be the report that vindicates their stale predictions.

This week also has plenty of non-housing related data, including Factory Orders and the Chicago Business Barometer (PMI).

Two reports this week will be used as an inflationary gauge, Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Producer Price Index.

The latter is more meaningful, and caps off the week along with construction spending.

PPI is likely to follow the same script as other recent inflation data sets, CPI and PCE.

However PPI is more forward-looking, as an increase in producer prices generally gets passed on to the consumer.

Because of the uneventful sideways grind last week there will be no Data Deluge, but tariff tantrums and other exogenous events (Mexico) could kickstart bond market volatility again – stay tuned for updates throughout the week.

In the meantime, check out this week’s Mortgage Rate Price Tracker for a closer look at how specific mortgage rates have changed.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

Included in this post are the following:

• The Tracker

• Week 3 (Feb)

• Rate Recap

THE TRACKER 🔭
----------------

Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.

However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.

The Mortgage Rate Price Tracker (MRPT) illustrates this dynamic by showing how the price of each rate changed within the time series.

The higher the rate, the lower the fee (points). Some higher rates pay a rebate; this is illustrated on the tracker with negative (-) points.

When the “total change” is negative it means a reduction in the price of the rate.

The MRPT is a “rate and loan program” specific example of the LendZen Index, which monitors a much broader set of rates and mortgage bond coupons.

Both are effective for visualizing how the PRICE of mortgage rates has changed, while the LendZen Index is published daily at LendZen.substack.com

WEEK 3 📉
---------

Since the LendZen Index has a variety of time series, the MRPT will focus on just the current month’s activity.

Attached are the results for February Week 3.

The rates in the VA 30 tracker now include 4.75%.

You can also explore the results for Week 2 on this previous Substack post.

OBSERVATION:

The short Presidents’ Day week was absent of any drama and hardly a wiggle from bonds.

The moves we did see were ever-so-slightly not in our favor.

Considering the strong performance the week prior, this minor pullback is barely worth mentioning and in the case of VA loans it was only visible on lowest rate options as rates designated to higher Ginne Mae coupons improved.

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The short week was uneventful despite the potential for a Friday crescendo with GDP, Consumer Sentiment, and PCE inflation.

Even news of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s tariffs barely created a ripple.

Prior to Friday, U.S. Pending Homes Sales created a minor stir with the NAR’s Monthly Index hitting the lowest level on record.

The tug-of-war between mildly warmer inflation (PCE) and gloomy econ data left bond prices the flattest we’ve seen in a long time.

The good news is this left mortgage rates near multi-year lows, although slightly worse than last week.

Insight into next week’s events, including the latest Rate Impact Calendar, will be posted in tomorrow’s Week Ahead.

Because of the uneventful sideways grind last week there will be no Data Deluge this Monday but stay tuned for updates throughout the week.

Meanwhile, check out this popular post explaining how to find the best deal when shopping for a mortgage.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

See for yourself and experience hassle-free mortgage shopping at LendZen.com

DISCLOSURES

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

The short week was uneventful despite the potential for a Friday crescendo with GDP, Consumer Sentiment, and PCE inflation – the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the Trump tariffs didn’t add any enthusiasm either.

Prior to Friday, U.S. Pending Homes Sales created a minor stir with the NAR’s Monthly Index hitting the lowest level on record.

Despite GDP and service sector surveys (PMI) missing expectations, the overall gloomy econ data wasn’t enough to change the “Neverending Story” of sideways bond prices.

The good news is that mortgage rates ended the third week of February near multi-year lows.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen (NMLS 375788) provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

See for yourself and experience hassle-free mortgage shopping at LendZen.com

Included in this update are the following sections:

• Midweek Recap

• Impact Calendar

• Rate Price Index

• Mortgage Spreads

• Rate Lock Guide

MIDWEEK RECAP ⏪
-------------------

Nothing has happened so far in the short President’s day week.

The good news is the boring sideways grind has kept mortgage rates near a multi-year low.

See more in the Rate Price Index section below.

IMPACT CALENDAR 📅
-----------------------

Don’t expect much action on Thursday either as bond markets seem content treading water until Friday’s PCE report.

Personal Consumption Expenditures is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric and is bookended on Friday by the final Q4 GDP numbers and the University of Michigan final consumer sentiment reading for February.

RATE PRICE INDEX 📉
----------------------

Mortgage rates do not rise or fall, instead the PRICE of rates change.

The LendZen Index calculates a daily change in the price of mortgage rates by tracking a spectrum of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
-----------

• 24-Hour: -1 bps (-$9 per $100K)

• 5-Day:  -24 bps (-$240)

• 10-Day:  -50 bps (-$499)

• 30-Day: -10 bps (-$90)

Learn more about the LendZen Index and explore the full data series at LendZen.substack.com

MORTGAGE SPREADS 🧈
-------------------------

Published daily with the LendZen Index is the LendZen Mortgage-Treasury Spread.

The LMTS uses actual bond yields to create a historically consistent, and reliable, data set.
-----------

• Feb 11:  0.82

• Feb 18:  0.83

• 24h:  -1 bps

• 5d:  +1 bps

• 12m Avg:  1.16

• YoY:  -43 bps

Learn more about the importance of accurate mortgage spreads on this Substack post.

The spread between MBS yields and the 10-Treasury Note continues to hover at multi-year lows.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 82 🔴
A quiet start to the week has eased immediate lock pressure, but with rates sitting at the doorstep of a multi-year best, PCE, GDP, and Consumer Sentiment still make locking the prudent move for short timelines.

[ 30 Days ] — 61 🟠
The recent calm and positive bond momentum helps the case for floating, but inflation remains a threat that could undo recent gains.

[ 45 Days ] — 54 🟡
With more time to absorb near-term volatility this window suggests patience will prevail, especially if Friday’s inflation data cooperates.

[ 60 Days ] — 38 🟢
The broader trend remains bond friendly. As long as inflation stays contained, floating continues to make sense heading toward March and the next FOMC rate decision.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen (NMLS 375788) provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

See for yourself and experience hassle-free mortgage shopping at LendZen.com