• Rate Recap

• Price Tracker

• 30-Year Rates

• 15-Year Rates

• VA 30-Year Rates

• MBS Explained

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

May ended only slightly worse than April but hidden in the final numbers are the wild swings from throughout the month.

Fortunately, anticipation of an Iran peace deal helped mortgage rates recover over 100-bps of pricing in the final 7 trading days, otherwise May would have been dismal.

The horizontal bar charts cover the last 4 months (as indicated).

The rate price tables and MBS data cover the previous month only (May 1 – May 29).

PRICE TRACKER 🔭
------------------

Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.

However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.

The Mortgage Rate Price Tracker (MRPT) illustrates this dynamic by showing how the price of each rate changed within the time series.

Some higher rates pay a rebate; this is illustrated on the tracker with negative (-) points.

When the “total change” in the table is negative it means a reduction in the price of the rate.

The MRPT is a “rate and loan program” specific example of the LendZen Index, which monitors a much broader set of rates and mortgage bond coupons.

Both are effective for visualizing how the PRICE of mortgage rates has changed, while the LendZen Index is published daily at LendZen.Substack.com

CONVENTIONAL 30-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

CONVENTIONAL 15-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

VA 30-YEAR 📉
--------------

MBS EXPLAINED 📖
-------------------

How much a mortgage-backed security is priced below or above par (100-00) determines the “price” of the mortgage rates packaged into that MBS coupon.

For example, the higher an MBS is priced above par, the less expensive the rates will be that are sold into that security.
(ex. 102-00 > 101-00)

The Note rates of each mortgage sold into a specific MBS typically range between 0.250 – 0.625 above the coupon rate, depending on the loan type.
(ex. 6.250% – 6.625% rates ~ 6.00 MBS)

The spread between the mortgage Note rate and the coupon rate is retained as a servicing fee.
(ex. 0.250 – 0.625)

This is why a 6.00 note rate is not sold into a 6.00 coupon and is therefore priced based on lower coupons.
(ex. 6.00% rate ~ 5.50 MBS)

As a result, the shift between different coupons can disproportionality affect the PRICE of the lower Note rate despite the close proximity of the two rates.
(ex. X.00% rate vs X.25% rate)

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

The mortgage bond market managed to string together 7 consecutive days of gains despite the lack of a peace deal.

This puts mortgage rates back to the levels when the ceasefire was first announced in April.

Finalizing a peace agreement this week is crucial.

Further delays could by itself unravel recent gains but add in this week’s employment data, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Hopefully it’s only good news and bond friendly data, that mortgage rates can easily digest.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 80 🟠
Mortgage rates have improved consistently since the recent March high, but short-window borrowers do not have enough time to recover from another setback, whether it be any of the week’s employment reports (JOLTS, ADP, NFP), or a further delayed peace deal.

[ 30 Days ] — 66 🟠
This window remains lock-leaning. The latest LendZen Index shows a strong 5-day and 10-day recovery, but the 30-day view is still worse for borrowers, which says the market is healing, not healed.

[ 45 Days ] — 56 🟡
With more time available markets have room to absorb this week’s data flow, but floating still requires a watchful eye with the first FOMC under Warsh just shy of two-weeks out (June 17).

[ 60 Days ] — 44🟡
Two-month timelines still have float flexibility but remain just outside of green territory. The recovery can continue if a peace deal helps drag oil prices down further and econ data stays close to expectations. In this environment The Fed’s June rate decision will unlikely add any surprises, especially since post-FOMC press conferences have been canned by Warsh.

If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.

I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

The above chart is from the LendZen Index, which tracks rates across a variety of time series and is posted daily on Substack at LendZenIndex.com

In a sudden return from the dead, bonds have fully recovered from the last two weeks of losses with a strong 5-day rebound.

Hopefully a peace deal is finally announced, so the latest reversal continues for mortgage rates.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

• Introduction

• First-time vs. Repeat Buyers

• Active-duty vs. Veterans

• Loan Types

Introduction
---------------

Recent data from the National Association of Realtors shows military-connected households (active-duty service members or veterans) made up a stable 19% of home buyers in 2025, consistent over the past decade.

Veterans were overwhelmingly repeat buyers, while active-duty service members were more likely to be first-time buyers; due mostly to a skew in age.

VA loans remain the biggest story, used by 69% of active-duty buyers and 55% of veteran buyers.

First-time vs. Repeat Buyers
--------------------------------

Active-duty buyers are more likely to be first-time purchasers (26%) than the overall market (21%), while veterans lead the market for repeat buyers (88%).

My takeaway:

The first-time purchaser strength of active-duty buyers is a powerful example of how 100% financing and cost-of-living allowances (COLA) can give military households an edge in a housing market often out of reach for most younger would-be homebuyers who lack the VA loans purchasing power.

In fact, among those who purchased a home in 2025, more than one-third of active-duty service members (36%) and over one-quarter of veteran buyers (28%) financed their home with no down payment.

Active-duty vs. Veterans
----------------------------

Active-duty buyers are a small but steady share of the overall buyer population (1-3%), while veterans represent 14-22% of buyers, with recent figures around 18%.

Meanwhile, the Veteran cohort was dominated by older generation buyers (28% for ages 71-79, 43% for 80-100).

My takeaway:

The total number of veterans is much greater than active-duty members, hence why they are a much larger percentage of buyers. However, the consistency of both buyer types overtime shows the key role military households have played in the housing market over the last decade.

Loan Types
-------------

VA loans are leaned on heavily by military buyers; used by 69% of active-duty and 55% of veterans.

My takeaway:

The majority of military buyers using the VA loan is not surprising given zero down options and AUS driven loan approvals that allow much higher DTI ratios compared to conventional loans.

What is surprising though, is how many choose not to use the VA loan.

For military households who have the capacity (down payment) to use other financing options, it can often work out better long-term.

Housing and COLA incentives are a financial advantage many active-duty underutilize, and while the benefits of the VA loan are clear, its shortcomings are often overlooked.

For example…

• Absent a service-connected disability, higher LTV loans come with 2.15 – 3.30% upfront mortgage insurance (VA funding fee).

  This puts homebuyers who use 100% financing options in a negative equity position immediately after they close (103%).

  Active-duty service members relocate (PCS) frequently, and home sellers typically pay agent commissions (4-6%). This puts the military homeowner underwater 9% or more if the home is in a flat or declining market.

• Another factor rarely shared with military households, is the servicemember’s loan benefit entitlement used will be permanently tied to the property.

  Refinancing from a VA loan to a conventional DOES NOT release entitlement, only the sale of the property does.

  The exception is a “single use” restoration of entitlement that must be approved by VA; this can only be used once.

• Lastly, leveraging home equity to buy additional properties has limitations with the VA loan.

  Unless the service member occupies the property as their primary residence they cannot use the VA cash out loan.

  Conventional loans or even non-conforming options (DSCR) aren’t limited by occupancy, giving homebuyers more flexibility if the long-term goal is to build a portfolio of cash flowing assets.

  The frequent buying at 100% with 3% funding fees, and selling with another 6% agent fees, strips out most short-term gains and eliminates the long-term accumulation of equity necessary to build lasting wealth.

When considering the smaller percentile of military households in the overall homeownership population, their role in both first-time purchases and repeat purchases cannot be understated, as clearly shown by the data and charts above.

Although the VA loan has very clear advantages it’s not a panacea, and the downsides outlined above should also be considered.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

The bond market has been at the mercy of Iran peace talk ping-pong, with both sides trying to control the narrative.

Although nothing has been finalized, the outlook has at least remained hopeful.

Enough so, that mortgage rates managed to avoid a final nail in the coffin last week after rebounding slightly.

Beyond the battlefield, the econ data this week will be dominated by home prices and inflation focused reports.

Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which will be watched as closely as ever given the recent jump in rate hike odds.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 85 🔴
Mortgage pricing is still badly bruised from the last two months and markets remain highly sensitive to inflation data. Short-window borrowers do not have enough time to absorb a bad inflation print or another oil-driven bond price shock, especially during a holiday-shortened week.

[ 30 Days ] — 69 🟠
The latest LendZen Index shows mortgage pricing 122 bps higher over 30 days, even after the slight Friday rebound. While there is some time to overcome the recent volatility, ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical risks make floating feel increasingly dangerous. The potential for an Iran peace deal could embolden the more aggressive floater or anyone with timeline flexibility (i.e. refi), but overall this window should be lock-leaning.

[ 45 Days ] — 60 🟡
At roughly six weeks out, there is enough time for the market to digest this week’s inflation data, but a dramatic reversal in bond pricing is a bit optimistic as oil transport in the Hormuz could take time to normalize.

[ 60 Days ] — 47🟡
Two-month timelines still have some float flexibility, but they no longer qualify as an easy green light. The longer horizon benefits from the chance that energy markets will calm further. However, “Big 3” data surprises and a shift in tone from the Fed under new Chairman Warsh remain as wild cards.

If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.

I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

Although there were moments of peace for both the Middle East and bond markets, hope for a long-term resolution seems all but gone as mortgage rates have ripped higher in recent days, back to levels not seen since last July.

The above chart is from the LendZen Index, which tracks rates across a variety of time series and is posted daily on Substack at LendZenIndex.com

On a positive note, things do seem slightly oversold in the context of how higher bond yields eventually drag on equity markets, resulting in a bid for bonds.

However, that feels more like blind optimism given how far MBS have sold off in the last two weeks.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

The bond market successfully navigated the previous week’s onslaught of labor market data.

The same cannot be said for this week’s inflation reports, which included hotter than expected prints in both the Producers Price Index and the Consumer Price Index.

This would have done damage on its own, but investors are showing greater fatigue when it comes to the Iran conflict.

Although the tone coming out of the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping (China) didn’t necessarily hurt, it didn’t help either, especially after DJT sternly rejected the latest Iran peace deal.

As a result, and in combination with the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chairmen, expectations for a Fed rate hike by the end of 2026 have surged.

This week several Fed speakers will get a chance to jawbone bond markets back from the cliff’s edge.

Their soothing words will have to compete with housing market data, purchasing manager surveys, and their own FOMC minutes.

Meanwhile, the outlook for peace in the Middle East was a primary driver of the bond sell-off last week, and thus oil prices will require close attention as WTI futures remains over $100.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 89 🔴
Mortgage rates have taken another meaningful hit from hotter inflation readings and persistent Middle East uncertainty. This week’s mix of Fed minutes, housing data, and multiple Fed speakers leaves very little room for error in the near term.

[ 30 Days ] — 73 🟠
The recent deterioration in bond prices has pushed the 30-day closing window deeper into caution territory. While there is some time to overcome the recent volatility, ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical risks make floating feel increasingly dangerous.

[ 45 Days ] — 63 🟠
With the combination of factors outlined above, and another round of the “Big 3” (FOMC, jobs, inflation), floating risks remain elevated even for medium-term closings.

[ 60 Days ] — 48 🟡
The longer-term picture is still somewhat supportive if tensions ease, but the sharp recent reversal and inflation psychology have removed much of the previous comfort margin for floating.

If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.

I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

• Single-Family: $449,900

• Condominium: $375,000

MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET

• Single-Family: 56

• Condominium: 70

INVENTORY FOR SALE

• Single-Family: 761,132

• Condominium: 223,266

LARGEST INVENTORY SURPLUS

• Colorado Springs, CO: +93%

• Denver, CO: +79%

• Lakeland, FL: +72%

LARGEST INVENTORY DEFICIT

• Cleveland, OH: -49%

• Philadelphia, PA: -50%

• Harrisburg, PA: -52%

HIGHEST ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH

• Scranton, PA: +6.6%

• New Haven, CT: +6.4%

• Milwaukee, WI: +6.0%

LOWEST ANNUAL HOME PRICE GROWTH

• Colorado Springs, CO: -1.8%

• Palm Bay, FL: -1.8%

• Las Vegas, NV: -1.9%

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

• Rate Recap

• Price Tracker

• 30-Year Rates

• 15-Year Rates

• VA 30-Year Rates

• MBS Explained

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

April brought some relief to mortgage rates after a devasting month of March.

Although I wanted to share this post last week, mortgage pricing hasn’t changed much since then.

Therefore, the included charts and insights are still applicable even though we are entering the 2nd week of May.

The horizontal bar charts cover the last 4 months (as indicated).

The rate price tables and MBS data cover the previous month only (March 27 – May 1).

PRICE TRACKER 🔭
------------------

Most mortgages are sold into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the price of these bonds determines rates for all banks and lenders.

However, mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, the price of each rate changes while the rates available to you remain the same.

The Mortgage Rate Price Tracker (MRPT) illustrates this dynamic by showing how the price of each rate changed within the time series.

Some higher rates pay a rebate; this is illustrated on the tracker with negative (-) points.

When the “total change” in the table is negative it means a reduction in the price of the rate.

The MRPT is a “rate and loan program” specific example of the LendZen Index, which monitors a much broader set of rates and mortgage bond coupons.

Both are effective for visualizing how the PRICE of mortgage rates has changed, while the LendZen Index is published daily at LendZen.Substack.com

CONVENTIONAL 30-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

CONVENTIONAL 15-YEAR 📉
------------------------------

VA 30-YEAR 📉
--------------

MBS EXPLAINED 📖
-------------------

How much a mortgage-backed security is priced below or above par (100-00) determines the “price” of the mortgage rates packaged into that MBS coupon.

For example, the higher an MBS is priced above par, the less expensive the rates will be that are sold into that security.
(ex. 102-00 > 101-00)

The Note rates of each mortgage sold into a specific MBS typically range between 0.250 – 0.625 above the coupon rate, depending on the loan type.
(ex. 6.250% – 6.625% rates ~ 6.00 MBS)

The spread between the mortgage Note rate and the coupon rate is retained as a servicing fee.
(ex. 0.250 – 0.625)

This is why a 6.00 note rate is not sold into a 6.00 coupon and is therefore priced based on lower coupons.
(ex. 6.00% rate ~ 5.50 MBS)

As a result, the shift between different coupons can disproportionality affect the PRICE of the lower Note rate despite the close proximity of the two rates.
(ex. X.00% rate vs X.25% rate)

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore additional time series at LendZen.Substack.com

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates have been steadily weathering a variety of storms, the biggest being the relentless wave of uncertainties coming out of the Middle East.

Although the bond market performed well last week in the face of a deluge of jobs data, this week will be equally challenging.

In addition to the existing home sales report, and inflation focused surveys (CPI, Retail Sales), bonds will have to contend with a number of Treasury auctions.

How well mortgage rates fare will depend on the market’s appetite for the new supply of government debt.

Meanwhile, the price of oil has been putting upward pressure on rates for most of the last two months.

Ongoing peace talks between the U.S. and Iran will help keep inflation flare ups at bay, allowing investors to make more data focus decisions.

Unfortunately, Monday provided no reprieve as new threats from the Trump administration emerged as the latest peace deal was deemed unacceptable.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 86 🔴
Mortgage pricing already took another hit to start the week, and this week’s CPI report and heavy auction schedule could easily trigger additional pressure on short-term pricing.

[ 30 Days ] — 69 🟠
This window stays firmly lock-biased. There is enough time to recover from one bad print, but not enough time to comfortably absorb a full repricing cycle if war headlines keep feeding inflation psychology.

[ 45 Days ] — 57 🟡
With more time on the calendar, there is room to absorb this week’s inflation and housing data, but the combination of auctions and potential geopolitical flare-ups keeps risk in moderate territory.

[ 60 Days ] — 44🟡
Two-month timelines still have some room to float, but this is no longer a comfortable green-light environment.

If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.

I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

As pointed out in the week ahead, the weeklong deluge of jobs data was more likely to hurt mortgage rates than help, as the focus would remain on the Iran peace talks.

Fortunately, no damage was done despite the Non-Farm Payroll surprise, which showed more new payrolls (115k vs 62k) than expected.

The dramatic decline in immigration and labor force participation has resulted in a shift in focus from bond traders.

Greater emphasis is now placed on the unemployment rate, which remained unchanged at 4.3%.

In the end, mortgage bonds clawed back about half of last week’s losses, keeping mortgage rates slightly ahead on the month.

The above chart is from the LendZen Index, which tracks rates across a variety of time series and is posted daily on Substack at LendZenIndex.com

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

• Rate Recap

• Week Ahead

• Rate Lock Guide

RATE RECAP ⏪
--------------

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index represents how the pricing of mortgage rates changed during the time series.

Learn more and explore more time series at the LendZen Index Substack.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

There is already enough on the calendar this week to put bonds and mortgage rates on their heels, escalation in the Middle East is not how we wanted things to start.

However, that’s exactly what we had on Monday, sending oil and interest rates higher.

Oil closed above $100 again, after a temporary dip on Friday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond closed above 5%, a level that has been acting as strong support/resistance for the last two decades.

Mortgage rates also retreated, erasing April’s gains, but still have some cushion before testing the March highs.

The rest of the week is packed with the typical reports during an employment data week.

Tuesday starts things off with the “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey” (JOLTS), as well as two service sector surveys.

Wednesday is the Monthly ADP payrolls report, followed on Thursday by Challenger Layoffs and Jobless Claims.

Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) is the usual headliner and is punctuated by the first University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for the month of May.

Absent a massive miss (lower than expected) on the NFP employment report, this week is unlikely to have a favorable turnaround without positive news from the Strait of Hormuz

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

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Closing Window
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[ 15 Days ] — 87 🔴
Mortgage rates have given back much of the recent recovery after oil surged above $100 and the 30-year Treasury pushed above 5%. With a full week of employment data (JOLTS, ADP, Challenger, NFP) and ongoing Middle East tensions, short-term risk remains very high.

[ 30 Days ] — 71 🟠
The combination of geopolitical-driven inflation risks, and a stacked jobs calendar, create heavy repricing risk. One “hot” print, or further conflict escalation, could quickly erase any remaining post-March gains which puts this window in high-caution territory.

[ 45 Days ] — 59 🟡
There is more time to absorb the latest dose of volatility, but the labor market reports this week could put longer-term closing windows on their heels too.

[ 60 Days ] — 46🟡
The two-month backdrop is still somewhat supportive, but renewed inflation fears add uncertainty, especially for Spring buyers who are rate/payment sensitive.

If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.

I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.

Thanks for reading…

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

The below snapshot is just a glimpse of today’s rates, but the pricing you see is exactly what you get - there are no additional lender fees or origination charges.

When you customize a rate quote on LendZen you get anonymous access to ALL AVAILABLE RATES that match your specific criteria.

Mortgage rates change daily, but on LendZen.com you can save a scenario and revisit your options anytime with one-click.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for any loan you create.

Experience hassle-free mortgage shopping now at LendZen.com

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788

In Powell’s final FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, the committee decided to leave their benchmark “Fed Funds” unchanged at 3.50 - 3.75% for the third consecutive time.

Despite the expected news, markets responded negatively, most notably mortgage bonds.

However, mortgage rates do not follow Fed Funds and technically do not rise or fall.

Instead, the menu of options remains constant while the individual price of each rate changes daily based on the price of mortgage-backed securities.

LOWER bond prices = HIGHER mortgage rate prices.

The LendZen Index averages the daily change in price of ALL mortgage rates across a spectrum of MBS coupons and lender rate sheets.

Meanwhile, the most widely referenced rate indexes use unverifiable data and exclude fees (points).

For greater accuracy and transparency, the 30-Year fixed rate chart shown here uses public sources only, including an implied market rate based on the price of mortgage bonds.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.\

The Iran conflict drags on as trash talk from both sides pushes oil towards $100.

Although oil prices have been creeping higher, the weakness in precious metals might suggest a deflationary shock being priced in more than inflation.

Mortgage rates are also losing ground.

However, MBS-Treasury spreads remain tight, holding below 1.00 for the last 3 weeks.

Tomorrow’s FOMC is Powell’s last as Fed Chair.

Despite oil’s price action, tomorrow’s rate decision will likely be the biggest market mover over the next 48 hours, followed by the PCE inflation report on Thursday.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

The events in Iran have been the main market mover since the conflict began.

However, this week is possibly the first time in 60 days that economic data will again take center stage.

The shift in attention also comes at a time when bond markets (and mortgage rates) are looking for directional guidance after the post March 27 recovery has lost momentum.

The FOMC rate decision is delivered on Wednesday, followed by what will be Jerome Powell’s final press conference as Fed Chairman.

It might also be the last presser for a while as Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh has suggested discontinuing the regularly scheduled media briefings.

This week’s Mortgage Rate Impact Calendar is also packed with inflation focused reports (PCE, Employment Cost Index) and numerous manufacturing surveys (Chicago PMI, S&P PMI, ISM).

Sprinkled in for good measure is durable goods, home price data (Case Schiller, FHFA), and multiple Treasury Note auctions.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 76 🟠
Mortgage rates have recovered nicely from the March spike thanks to the ceasefire, but this week brings the FOMC decision, PCE inflation, and multiple manufacturing surveys. Any surprises could lead to a swift and painful repricing without time to recover.

[ 30 Days ] — 63 🟠
Markets finally get the kind of economic calendar that can provide real directional guidance. If inflation-sensitive data or Powell’s tone disappoint, one month is not much time to recover from a meaningful repricing. This window can float but be ready to lock in the face of any reprice risks.

[ 45 Days ] — 53 🟡
With more time on the horizon, there is room to absorb this week’s data and the Fed meeting without immediate panic, though geopolitical risks and inflation readings keep caution in place.

[ 60 Days ] — 40🟢
The longer-term backdrop remains supportive of a float-first mentality as the ceasefire has eased energy-price pressure. Absent any major surprises the path for better mortgage rates looks more favorable over the next two months, especially with Powell out and a new Fed Chair taking over.

If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.

I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

Geopolitics have been the main catalysts for market volatility since the military operation in Iran first started eight weeks ago (Feb 27).

Fortunately, economic data hasn’t added much to the chaos; this week was no exception.

Absent any meaningful data, recent ceasefire headlines have dominated market sentiment.

As a result, the bond market has made strong gains since March 27.

Although peace talks seem to be at a stalemate this week, mortgage rates managed to stay afloat with minimal damage.

Meanwhile, news on Friday that the DOJ will be dropping its criminal indictment of Jerome Powell helped bonds erase the morning’s losses.

The day finished at the best levels since Monday, keeping the two-week trend positive.

RATE PRICE INDEX

The LendZen Index charts included above use a spectrum of MBS data and various lender rate sheets to calculate an average change in PRICE for all mortgage rates.

For example, if you received a loan estimate on 3/27 (red dot, image 2), the price of that rate is now approximately 130 bps lower or $1,304 less per 100k of loan amount.

Likewise, a rate quote from 4/20 (green dot) will be slightly more expensive today (12 bps, $121).

Unlike an “average rate” index, measuring the change in PRICE of rates provides a metric that borrowers can apply to their specific situation.

The online tool Compare LE uses the index data to normalization loan estimates, so that you get a true comparison as if both were issued on the same day.

Learn more about how to accurately compare estimates and find the best mortgage deal on this Substack Post.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Bond markets have stringed together three straight weeks of gains, helping mortgage rates mostly recover from the ides of March.

This week’s Mortgage Rate Impact Calendar is relatively quiet, with manufacturing surveys commanding the most attention.

Markets will be monitoring the situation in Iran carefully, as will the Fed, as the next FOMC rate decision arrives next week (April 29).

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 72 🟠
Mortgage rates have continued to improve over the past three weeks as the Iran ceasefire reduced immediate oil-price pressure, but a quiet calendar this week means any new headlines could quickly reverse recent gains.

[ 30 Days ] — 59 🟡
The recent bond-friendly momentum has been steady, but modest. This week’s upcoming manufacturing surveys and housing data will hopefully pad the recent improvements ahead of the Fed’s rate decision next week, but Iran is still the biggest wild card - as it has been for 7-weeks.

[ 45 Days ] — 49 🟡
With this week’s lighter data flow, and more time to absorb unexpected Fed policy decisions, longer timelines can again lean towards floating, while closely monitoring geopolitical uncertainties.

[ 60 Days ] — 38🟢
The recent bond rally has provided some breathing room and hopes for a return to multi-year lows. Geopolitical risk aside, there will be multiple rounds of employment and inflation data within this time window that can alter your lock strategy.

If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.

I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

Seven weeks ago (Feb 27) mortgage rates were enjoying their best levels in years, before the surprise attack on Iran sent oil prices surging and bond prices tanking.

The situation seemed dire, as mortgage rates quickly jumped to levels not seen since last summer.

However, in recent weeks bonds have fought back, recovering most of the March losses as peace talks continue in the Middle East.

The multi-year lows that punctuated February are again within reach.

As inflation fears have calmed, oil prices have tumbled 32%, dipping below $80 for the first time since “Operation Epic Fury” began

Although there is good reason to be optimistic about the current trend continuing, March was an important reminder of how quickly things can change.

If the opportunity to refinance slipped away last month, this weekend is a good time to shop rates and choose a lender.

Next week will confirm if the recent mortgage rate improvements have staying power.

If they don’t, you will want to be ready to lock without doubts about which lender you are using.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

WEEK AHEAD 🗓️
----------------

Mortgage rates, in response to the Iran ceasefire, have clawed back more than half of the March losses since the new month began.

This week’s housing data (Existing home sales and Homebuilder sentiment) sets the tone as manufacturing data (PPI, NY/Philly Fed) will give the crowded Fed speaker schedule something to talk about ahead of the next FOMC rate decision on April 29.

RATE LOCK GUIDE 🔒
---------------------

The LendZen LOCK-O-METER provides borrowers with a risk-weighted score based on how various macroeconomic events, including market data, central bank announcements, and geopolitics, each historically impacts the price of bonds.

higher risk scores = lean towards locking

------------------
Closing Window
------------------

[ 15 Days ] — 75 🟠
The ceasefire in Iran has helped mortgage rates claw back roughly half of the March losses, but the week is packed with housing data, manufacturing surveys, and multiple Fed speakers that could reintroduce.

[ 30 Days ] — 61 🟠
Bond-friendly momentum from the ceasefire has been modest so far; upcoming housing and manufacturing reports will test whether the recent recovery can hold or if inflation concerns return.

[ 45 Days ] — 50 🟡
With more time on the calendar, markets have room to absorb this week’s data without panic, but any hawkish Fed comments or hotter-than-expected numbers could stall the improvement in mortgage pricing.

[ 60 Days ] — 45 🟢
The longer-term picture remains constructive as the ceasefire reduces immediate energy-price risks, giving bonds breathing room. However, the April FOMC and upcoming inflation data will be the real test of whether this recovery has legs.

If you are already in a strong position locking generally makes the most sense, especially for shorter windows, since the focus should be on making a savvy rate choice based on your longer-term rate outlook.

I expand on this “long game” approach in this Substack post.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.

After last night’s Iran ceasefire announcement oil prices fell 18% helping to spark a strong bond rally in overnight trading.

Despite the encouraging news, bond prices reversed during Wednesday trading hours.

Because of a strong opening bid for MBS, mortgage rates ended better than yesterday despite the midday sell-off.

Meanwhile, the Fed Minutes put further emphasis on this week’s inflation data, which kicks off with tomorrow’s PCE and is followed by Friday’s CPI.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, so tomorrow could be another volatile day for bond markets.

Hopefully, the ceasefire holds and inflation remains subdued, so the gradual recovery in mortgage rates can continue.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to shop real-time mortgage rates and get instant qualification results without providing any contact information visit LendZen.com

LendZen provides a fully automated mortgage shopping experience that gives you anonymous access to all mortgage rates with full transparency of costs upfront as bond prices change.

You can also request an official Loan Estimate for the exact loan you created and save your scenario to revisit your rate options daily with one-click.

LendZen Inc. is an equal opportunity mortgage lender, NMLS 375788.